The EURUSD, GBPUSD, and AUDUSD key levels remain intact. The US dollar bottoming scenario remains favored.



Euro / US Dollar

There is no change from yesterday as the key level remains intact. The poke above 1.4013 dampens confidence in the short term bearish count but does not invalidate it. Staying below 1.4181 keeps the trend pointed down. The series of lower highs and lows since 1.4340 may be a series of 1st and 2nd waves. Under this scenario, the decline from 1.4014 a third of a third (powerful) wave decline. It is also possible that the current decline is wave 4 of a diagonal from 1.2454 (alternate labels). A drop below 1.3747 would enable bears to move risk to 1.4014.

British Pound / US Dollar

1.6626 remains the key level for bears. The entire decline from 2.1160 is most likely unfolding as an impulse (5 waves) and just 3 waves have unfolded. The rally from 1.3500, although strong, still counts well as a correction (3 waves). In fact, price reached and reversed at a former 4th wave (common guideline). The rally from 1.5800 was an impulse, making it possible that wave v of C was truncated. Staying below 1.6626 keeps the topping scenario intact.

Australian Dollar / US Dollar

The AUDUSD count shown above is similar to the GBPUSD in that wave v of C may be truncated. The rally from .7823 is in 5 waves but failed to exceed .8269. Usually, this would signal that an entirely new bull cycle is underway. But given the extension of the rallies from .6245 and .6986, this scenario is not probable. Near term, the decline below .7823 supports the topping scenario as does the structure of the rally from .7786, which is in 3 waves.

New Zealand Dollar / US Dollar

My focus remains on the longer term structure, especially the rally from .4890, which is a textbook zigzag. Waves A and C are equal, which is common. The NZDUSD unexpectedly exceeded .6474 Friday, thereby negating the short term bearish structure. The bearish implications from the aforementioned evidence remain however.

US Dollar / Japanese Yen

The triangle continues to play out. Wave e of the triangle should complete later this week. There is potential support at 95. There is an alternate bearish in which the drop from 101.50 is a series of 1st and 2nd waves. 93.50 defines the trend (above is bullish and below is bearish). Near term, a rally is likely to begin soon regardless of the larger trend. The triangle count is bullish from here against 93.50 and if the decline from 98.91 is an impulse (which is what the drop looks like), then a second wave rally could reach 97.20.

US Dollar / Canadian Dollar

I wrote yesterday that the rally from 1.0782 can be counted a number of ways but to this point there is just 3 waves up from that level. The risk of at least a correction is high. Initial Fibonacci support is 1.1330 and structural support extends to 1.1220. The USDCAD has entered the triangle price area, which is potential support.

US Dollar / Swiss Franc

The USDCHF spiked below 1.0650 and then reversed violently. The count shown above is the only viable bullish alternate and 1.0630 is the new trend defining level.

Jamie Saettele publishes Daily Technicals every weekday morning (930 am EST), COT analysis (published Monday mornings), technical analysis of currency crosses throughout the week (EUR on Tuesday, JPY on Wednesday, GBP on Thursday, AUD on Friday), and the DFX Trend Index every day after the NY close. He is also the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market.

Please send comments about this report to jsaettele@dailyfx.com