-EURUSD drop from 1.33 and impulse
-GBPUSD short term pattern also bearish
-AUDUSD and NZDUSD remain below key levels
-USDJPY breaks support line
-USDCHF bounces from support line
Euro / US Dollar
I wrote Friday that despite the unexpected rally, I maintain that a 3rd of a 3rd wave is down within the 5 wave decline from 1.60. The decline from 1.33 (on the hourly) is in 5 waves, which strongly suggests that the decline has resumed. Risk can be moved to 1.33 and short term resistance is at 1.3185.
British Pound / US Dollar
An expanded flat is complete and the decline from 1.4776 is an impulse, strongly suggesting that the path of least resistance for Cable is lower. A small second wave may be complete at 1.4632. Favor the downside against 1.4776 in anticipation of a break below 1.35.
Australian Dollar / US Dollar
As long as .7260 is intact, there is significant bearish potential. The 200 day SMA defends resistance at the key level. Bigger picture, a complex correction may be complete from the October 2008 low.
New Zealand Dollar / US Dollar
Bigger picture, there are 5 waves down from that .6090, suggesting that the long term trend remains down. Additionally, an expanded flat correction has unfolded from the February 2 low (.4958). Weakness is favored against .5939.
US Dollar / Japanese Yen
I continue to favor the downside against 98.46. The long term trend remains down and I am looking for a resumption of that trend. The drop beneath trendline support last week bolsters the bearish case. term bearish targets are at 96 and 94 (near former daily lows).
US Dollar / Canadian Dollar
The USDCAD has plunged through Fibonacci support but the trend remains up as long as price is above 1.1976. Staying above there keeps open the possibility that a wave 4 low is in place within the 5 wave advance from .9055.
US Dollar / Swiss Franc
Like the EURUSD, the USDCHF has most likely resumed its longer term trend towards USD strength. This is my working assumption as long as price is above 1.13. Price has bounced from a support line drawn off of March and April lows now.
Jamie Saettele publishes Daily Technicals every weekday morning (930 am EST), COT analysis (published Monday mornings), technical analysis of currency crosses throughout the week (EUR on Tuesday, JPY on Wednesday, GBP on Thursday, AUD on Friday), and the DFX Trend Index every day after the NY close. He is also the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market.
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