Dollar / Yen Correction Underway



Thu, 14 May 2009 10:20:43 -0400



By Jamie Saettele, Senior Currency Strategist strategist@dailyfx.com




-EURUSD small correction still underway
-USDJPY corrective advance to at least 97
-GBPUSD short term resistance at 1.52
-AUDUSD and NZDUSD to test highs

2009-05-14_tech_1

Euro / US Dollar

2009-05-14_tech_eur

A push above 1.3742 is still required to satisfy the minimum requirement for wave Y, at which time I will expect a top and reversal (objectives are at points from 1.3800 to 1.4200).  Near term, I favor additional weakness to complete the correction from 1.3720.  Look for support in the 1.3430/90 zone. Again, the larger trend is considered bullish against 1.3251.

British Pound / US Dollar

2009-05-14_tech_gbp

Bigger picture, wave 4 within the 5 wave decline from the 2007 high (2.1160) is probably still underway.  1.5735, the confluence of the 38.2% of the decline from 2.0162 / December 2008 high, seems a likely target.  This level intersects with a resistance line at the end of May.  Near term, a corrective decline is underway from 1.5356.  Fibonacci support intersects a support line at 1.4868 next week.  There is short term resistance at 1.5200.  Structure is bullish above 1.4396.

Australian Dollar / US Dollar

2009-05-14_tech_aud

The rally from .6953 is wave v of C and the objective at .7630 has already been reached (which is where wave v of C would equal wave i of C).  The 50% retracement of the decline from .9822 at .7693 is giving bulls fits for now but one more high seems likely this week.  Higher RSI on the 240 minute chart suggests that the top is not yet in place (tops almost always occur with momentum divergence).  Watch the top of the short term Elliott channel for resistance after the AUDUSD breaks to a new high.  A small 4th wave may be complete.  Structure is bullish above .7245.

New Zealand Dollar / US Dollar

2009-05-14_tech_nzd

Wave structure along with the RSI condition explained in the AUDUSD analysis favors a new high in the NZDUSD as well.  Wave structure is bullish above .5782.

US Dollar / Japanese Yen

2009-05-14_tech_jpy

The USDJPY has broken beneath its 2+ month head and shoulders neckline.  This development is bearish and even more so in the context of long term wave structure, which suggests a new all time low (below 80).  A corrective rally is probably underway now as there appear to be 5 waves complete from 99.72.  Resistance begins at 96.70.

US Dollar / Canadian Dollar

2009-05-14_tech_cad

I wrote the last few days that “5 waves down from 1.2510 are probably complete so a correction, back to at least 1.1768 (former 4th wave price extreme) is expected.  As the correction plays out this week, I’ll look to identify the top.”  A top could form near current levels as price is testing the former 4th wave extreme (an Elliott guideline).  From a trading perspective, it is difficult to control risk at the current juncture though. 

US Dollar / Swiss Franc

2009-05-14_tech_chf

Whereas the EURUSD has yet to exceed its March high of 1.3742, the USDCHF has already dropped below its March low of 1.1157.  In other words, minimum expectations have been met for wave Y.  So, it is possible that a low is in place.  I’ll look for confirmation in the days ahead.

Jamie Saettele publishes Daily Technicals every weekday morning (930 am EST), COT analysis (published Monday mornings), technical analysis of currency crosses throughout the week (EUR on Tuesday, JPY on Wednesday, GBP on Thursday, AUD on Friday), and the DFX Trend Index every day after the NY close.  He is also the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market.
 
Please send comments about this report to jsaettele@dailyfx.com


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