Euro remains under pressure as a German government spokesman Wilhelm said today that Chancellor Merkel would consider IMF financial aid for debt-stricken Greece in an emergency. Also, Wilhelm said that decisions on aid for Greece are not on the agenda for EU summit on THursday and Friday. Dollar and yen are lifted by risk aversion and there are fresh round of buying as market enters into US session. The greenback is additionally supported by crude oil's dive through 79 level and as gold drops below 1100.
Intraday bias in dollar index remains on the upside for the moment and further rise should be seen to 81.34 high first. As noted before, consolidation from 81.34 should have completed at 79.51 after drawing support from 79.56 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 76.60 to 81.34 at 79.52). Break of 81.34 will confirm that whole medium term rise from 74.19 has resumed and should target next resistance at 82.63. Below 80.66 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral. But any retreat should be contained well above 79.51 and bring rally resumption.
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Elsewhere Sterling also remained pressure after Confederation of British Industry said the UK's recovery will be slow and sluggish. CBI said today that UK economy will expand no more than 1% this year as the lack of a clear driver for growth will make for a bumpy ride in the months ahead. Sterling is also facing political uncertainty from this year's general election as well as threat of rating downgrade from credit agencies for its debt.
SNB said in its quarterly bulletin that it will act decisively to prevent an excessive appreciation of the Swiss franc against the euro. The report also said that short-term price stability is not threatened but current expansionary monetary policy cannot be maintained throughout the entire forecast horizon without compromising medium- and long-term price stability. After, there is little impact of Swiss Franc as it remains firm in range against Euro and EUR/CHF is still set to take out 1.4135 (2008 low) sooner or later.
USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0557; (P) 1.0596; (R1) 1.0652; More.
USD/CHF's break of 1.0646 minor resistance suggests that whole correction from 1.0897 is completed at 1.0506 already. Intraday bias is flipped to the upside for 1.0809 resistance for confirmation. Break there will also suggest that whole medium term rise from 0.9916 is resuming and should target 61.8% projection of 1.0131 to 1.0897 from 1.0506 at 1.0979 next. On the downside, below 1.0577 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral again and will probably bring another fall. Nevertheless, we'd still expect strong support from rising trend line (now at 1.0491) to bring rise resumption.
In the bigger picture, medium term correction from 1.2296 should have completed with three waves down to 0.9916 already. Current rise from 0.9916 is tentatively treated as resumption of the long term up trend from 2008 low of 0.9634. Sustained break of mentioned medium term trend line resistance (now at 1.0818) will further affirm this view. In such case, we'd be looking at stronger rise to 1.1963/2296 resistance zone in medium term. On the downside, sustained break of rising trend line support (now at 1.0491) will suggest that rise from 0.9916 is completed. The three wave corrective structure will in turn argue that another low could be seen below 0.9916 before USD/CHF makes a bottom.