Dollar and Yen Pare Losses But Euro Still Firm

on April 12 2010 8:08 PM

Dollar and yen gapped lower today on news of the EUR 45b Greece bailout deal. Nevertheless both pare much of earlier losses as European stocks lost steam and turned red. Also, Euro's gain was somewhat limited by comments from German MOF that there was no decision on aid for Greece but just technical preconditions for aid by further specifying the decision of the heads of state and governments. In any case, Euro remains firm against major currencies in near term and more upside is still likely.

Eurozone members announced a deal over the weekend to provide Greece 3-year loans up to 30B euro. At an interest rate of around 5%, the borrowing cost is below-market rate as 3-year Greek bonds yielded almost 7% last Friday. The EU will be meeting with the IMF today in Brussels to discuss about the IMF's involvement. It's anticipated the world lender will contribute 1/3 of the whole package. Hence, it's expected the IMF will provide around 15B euro, making the total amount of the package 45B euro. More in EU Announced Details of Loans to Greece. Will Meet with the IMF for Finalization at Brussels Today

NBER (National Bureau of Economic Research said today that it's premature to determine recession US has ended. The NBER said that although most indicators have turned up, the committee decided that the determination of the trough date on the basis of current data would be premature. Also, many indicators are quite preliminary at this time and will be revised in coming months.

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3393; (P) 1.3445 (R1) 1.3550; More.

EUR/USD retreats after surging to as high as 13691 but hit 55 days EMA at 1.3686 earlier today. After all, intraday bias remains on the upside with 1.3490 minor support intact. Rise from 1.3266 corrects the whole five wave fall from 1.5143 and should target 1.3817 and possibly above. On the downside, break of 1.3490 minor resistance is needed to indicate that rise from 1.3282 is completed. Otherwise, we'd continue to expect further rise even in case of deeper retreat.

In the bigger picture, EUR/USD's fall from 1.5143 has possibly completed the five wave impulsive sequence already (1.4217, 1.4578, 1.3443, 1.3817, 1.3266) on bullish convergence conditions in daily MACD and RSI. Some lengthier consolidation would now be seen with risk of stronger rebound. Nevertheless, we'd expect upside to be limited by 38.2% retracement of 1.5143 to 1.3266 at 1.3983, which is close to 1.4 psychological level, and bring down trend resumption. The overall bearish outlook remains unchanged. That is, the three wave consolidation from 2008 low of 1.2329 has completed at 1.5143 already and fall from there is resuming whole down trend from 2008 high of 1.6039. Such decline is expected to break through 1.2329 low eventually.

EUR/USD

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