Euro reaches key inflection point. Dollar/Yen gains seen limited above 100.00. Cable confined to range despite recent surge. Dollar/Swiss still focused on 200-Day SMA. Dollar/Cad dips below 1.1800 viewed as compelling buy opportunity. Australian Dollar to fresh 2009 highs but stalling. New Zealand Dollar attempting to carve h&s top.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD - The break above falling channel support off of the 1.3740 highs is concerning for bears but the market has failed to show any good follow through thus far. After breaking out on Wednesday, gains extended to 1.3390 Thursday before pulling back into the 1.3200's. This could now set up the potential for a false upside break and once again put pressure on the downside. However, we recommend taking to the sidelines at current levels, with a break back above 1.3390 or below 1.3195 required for clearer directional bias. Above 1.3390 exposes 1.3585-1.3740 while below 1.3195 opens a move back to 1.3000. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.

Level

Resistance

Details

1.3515

R3

4/2 high

1.3390

R2

4/30 high

1.3340

R1

4/29 high

Level

Support

Details

1.3195

S1

4/30 low

1.3120

S2

4/29 low

1.3000

S3

4/27 low

USD/JPY

USD/JPY - Continues its impressive rally from the Ichimoku cloud top and is in the process of retracing the latest 101.45-95.60 move. The market has broken back above the 61.8% retrace and now eyes a break back above 100.00. Key levels to watch over the coming sessions come in by 100.00 and 98.50 respectively. A break above 100.00 will open a move back to the 101.45, 2009 highs, while back under 98.50 sets ups a bearish reversal targeting 95.60. Strategy: SELL @100.20 FOR A 97.15 OBJECTIVE, STOP @101.65. Stops to be trailed to cost on a break back below 99.80. If trade triggers and 99.80 not broken, position to be closed out at NY close (4pm NY time) on Friday. Recommendation to be removed if not triggered by NY close on Friday.

Level

Resistance

Details

100.45

R3

4/14 high

100.00

R2

Psychological

99.75

R1

4/17 high

Level

Support

Details

98.50

S1

5/1 low

97.95

S2

4/29 high

97.15

S3

4/30 low

GBP/USD

GBP/USD - No reason to be taking positions at current levels with the market caught in the middle of a very choppy range. Our bias however is for an eventual resumption of the broader downtrend to be confirmed on a break back below 1.4395 which should then open a fresh downside extension exposing next key support by 1.4110 (30Mar low). Any rallies should be well capped ahead of 1.5000 with only a sustained break back above 1.5070 required to shift outlook. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.

Level

Resistance

Details

1.5070

R3

4/16 high

1.5000

R2

Psychological

1.4950

R1

4/30 high

Level

Support

Details

1.4755

S1

5/1 low

1.4705

S2

4/30 low

1.4610

S3

4/29 low

USD/CHF

USD/CHF - The 200-Day SMA is the key here with the market remaining quite constructive while the pair holds above the longer-term moving average on a close basis. Recent attempts below the moving average have failed and we are once again bouncing to suggest fresh upside. Look for a break back above 1.1445 to take pressure off of the downside and accelerate gains towards 1.1600. A close below the 200-Day SMA at 1.1370 will be bearish and open a direct test of the 1.1165 19Mar lows. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.

Level

Resistance

Details

1.1600

R3

4/22 low

1.1530

R2

4/24 high

1.1455

R1

4/17 low

Level

Support

Details

1.1345

S1

200-Day SMA

1.1305

S2

4/13 low

1.1240

S3

4/6 low

USD/CAD

USD/CAD - Has pulled back quite sharply over the past several days with the market breaking to fresh multi-day lows below 1.1980 to finally break the 200-Day SMA by 1.1850. While the current pullback changes the picture somewhat, the broader structure still remains constructive with the market locked in a longer-term bullish consolidation dating back to October of 2008. As such, any dips towards the bottom of the range should be used as opportunities to establish long positions in anticipation of a move back into the mid-range at a minimum. Strategy: BUY @1.1780 FOR A 1.2270 OBJECTIVE, STOP @1.1630. Stops to be trailed to cost on a break back above 1.1830. Recommendation to be removed if not triggered by NY close on Friday.

Level

Resistance

Details

1.2075

R3

4/24 low

1.2050

R2

4/30 high

1.1955

R1

5/1 high

Level

Support

Details

1.1800

S1

Figure

1.1765

S2

1/6 2009 low

1.1655

S3

11/10 low

AUD/USD

AUD/USD - The market continues to chop around within a very broad 0.6000-0.7400 range dating back to October 2008. Despite the recent strength and break to fresh 2009 highs, the overall structure remains grossly bearish and given the proximity to the range highs, we like the idea of looking for opportunities to be short in anticipation of retest of the range lows at minimum. A break back below 0.7000 should help to accelerate declines and confirm bearish resumption. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.

Level

Resistance

Details

0.7400

R3

Figure

0.7385

R2

4/30 2009 high

0.7350

R1

5/1 high

Level

Support

Details

0.7230

S1

4/30 low

0.7160

S2

4/23 high

0.7050

S3

4/29 low

NZD/USD


NZD/USD -
The market continues to consolidate the latest setbacks off of the 0.5985 April highs with the daily chart potentially attempting to carve out a head & shoulders-like topping formation. A break below neckline support in the 0.5500 area would be required to confirm and accelerate declines back down to a measured move objective by 0.5000. However, at current levels, no positions are recommended with the market just as easily seen rallying back to the 0.6035 2009 highs from January. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.

Level

Resistance

Details

0.5985

R3

4/6 high

0.5825

R2

4/16 high

0.5780

R1

4/29 high

Level

Support

Details

0.5570

S1

4/29 low

0.5530

S2

4/28 low

0.5485

S3

4/20 low

Written by Joel Kruger, Technical Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com. If you wish to receive Joel's reports in a more timely fashion, e-mail jskruger@fxcm.com and you will be added to the distribution list.

Joel Kruger publishes 6 daily pieces:

Tech Talk - A Daily Video Highlighting Technical Developments in the Overnight Session of Trade.
Monday-Friday (between 5:30am-6:30am EST)

Morning Slices - Morning Overview using Fundamental, Technical, Flow, and Quantitative Analysis (Includes Trade of the Day).
Monday-Friday (between 6:30am-7:30am EST)

Indicator of the Day - A Feature Report that Highlights our Most Significant Technical Indicator of the Day.
Monday-Friday (between 8:00am-9:00am EST)

Cross Country - A Midday Fundamental Update, along with Technical Analysis of Selected Cross Rates.
Monday-Friday (between 10:30am-11:30am EST)

Scandi Daily - A Specialized Daily Fundamental and Technical Overview of the Nordic Currencies. (This report is only distributed through email. Please contact Nordic@fxcm.com if you would like to be added to distribution.)
Monday-Friday (between 11:30am-12:30pm EST)

Daily Classical - A Daily Technical Overview of the Major Currencies.
Monday-Friday (published between 2:00pm-3:00pm EST)