Euro breaks lower but still propped ahead of 1.2515. Dollar/Yen puts in bearish reversal day. Cable well supported by 1.4055-95. Dollar/Swiss still locked in bullish consolidation. Dollar/Cad finally breaks above major triangle resistance. Australian Dollar takes out previous 6 daily lows. New Zealand Dollar trades back under 0.5000.
Fresh weekly lows into Friday with the price breaking below the 1.2660 range lows to open deeper setbacks, exposing a direct retest on key 1.2515 (18Feb low) support. The market trades with a heavy tone and continues to be well capped by the 20-Day SMA on rallies. Look for setbacks to extend into Monday with a break below 1.2515 to accelerate towards the critical multi-year lows from 2008 at 1.2330 (28Oct low). Only a close back above the 20-Day SMA would negate bearish outlook. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.
Price action is starting to look bearish and could be warning of a short-term top. After rallying sharply for four consecutive days, the market has finally stalled out on Friday, unable to post a fresh higher high above Thursday's high, and subsequently breaking back below Thursday's low. This sets up a bearish reversal day that could open the door to a more significant drop over the coming days. The overbought daily RSI also looks like it could be on the verge of rolling back over in favor of a much needed and healthy correction. Look for a break below Friday's low on Monday to confirm and open deeper setbacks towards the former resistance now turned support at 94.60. Strategy: SELL @96.85 FOR A 94.60 OBJECTIVE, STOP @97.85.
The price continues to be well supported on dips ahead of 1.4055-95 support (2/18Feb lows) and remains confined to the middle of a bear channel. Broader price action favors an eventual break below the latter, however, we do not recommend establishing any positions at current levels with the price just as easily able to rally several hundred pips while still being confined to the bear channel. For now, the key levels to watch above and below come in at 1.4485 and 1.4095. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.
Remains locked in a choppy multi-day sideways consolidation with price action largely confined to the 1.1465-1.1890 area. Last Friday's (20Feb) extremely bearish reversal day has shown no follow through this week, with the market bouncing back into the mid-range. The overall structure however remains bullish and we expect dips to continue to be well supported ahead of an eventual break to challenge the key 2008 highs at 1.2300. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.
Multi-month triangle resistance at 1.2650 has finally been broken on Friday and a daily close above the latter will help to confirm a breakout which now opens a direct retest of the 1.3020 October 28 trend highs. Ultimately, the upside break should project gains back towards 1.4005 (2004 Highs) over the coming months (measured move objective based off of widest point of triangle). Broader market price action has been USD supportive into the end of the week and this helps to confirm bullish directional bias. Position: LONG @1.2620 FOR AN OPEN OBJECTIVE, STOP @1.2620.
The market has taken out the previous 6 daily lows on Friday, trading to 0.6340 ahead of the latest minor bounce. However, setbacks have once again stalled ahead of key short-term support at 0.6335, to prevent us from establishing a clear shorter-term bearish bias. While the broader structure remains grossly bearish, the market is still confined to a multi-day/multi-week chop that leaves us sidelined for now. Back below 0.6335 exposes the key trend lows by 0.6005 (27Oct lows), while above 0.6555 delays bearish momentum and confirms further range trade. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.
The weekly consolidation has finally been broken on Friday with the price dropping back below 0.5000 before finally stalling out just shy of the major trend lows at 0.4960 from early February. Look for setbacks to now extend below 0.4960 into the new week, to expose next key support in the 0.4500 area from August 2002. However, with daily studies so close to oversold, we prefer to wait for opportunities to sell into rallies rather than on breaks. Expect 0.5210 to continue to cap topside attempts. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.