Euro sees choppy session but set to close flat. Dollar/Yen eyes test of 100.00 barriers. Cable poised for 1.3500 retest over coming days. Dollar/Swiss still locked in choppy range trade. Dollar/Cad ascends to fresh multi year highs at 1.3065. Australian Dollar setbacks to accelerate below 0.6285. New Zealand Dollar prepping for next downside extension.
EUR/USD - Despite Friday's bullish close, the market still remains locked in consolidation above the recent 2009 trend lows at 1.2455 (4Mar low). A break back above 1.2755 will now be required to delay additional setbacks and open a more significant recovery over the coming days. However, inability to break back above 1.2755 will keep the pressure firmly on the downside and open the door for a retest of the key trend lows from late October at 1.2330. The 20-Day SMA continues to cap rallies. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.
USD/JPY - Has been well propped on dips to the 97.00 area with the market now consolidating in bullish fashion ahead of the next upside break beyond 99.70. Above 99.70 should then open a push towards the double bottom objective in the 104.00 area. However, daily studies remain overbought and buying at current levels does not offer compelling risk/reward. Back under 96.55 (6Mar low) delays bullish structure and exposes a 94.60 retest. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.
GBP/USD - The market has collapsed through the previous weekly consolidation lows to now expose a full 100% retracement of the 1.3500-1.4990 move. Look for a retest and break of 1.3500 over the coming sessions with a push below to expose next key support in the 1.3000 area (July 1985 lows). Back above 1.4305 is now required to delay the bearish structure and shift focus back on topside. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.
USD/CHF - As expected, we have see absolutely no follow through from Friday's bearish day with the market once again bouncing out from the recent range lows and back into the well defined range. Ultimately, we favor an eventual break of 1.1890 to retest the 2008 multi-year highs by 1.2300 over the coming weeks. We will look to buy into dips in anticipation of the bullish continuation. Strategy: BUY @1.1465 FOR A 1.1850 OBJECTIVE, STOP @1.1290.
USD/CAD - Setbacks from last Thursday were well supported ahead of 1.2700 and the bull move post the major triangle break remains firmly intact with the market extending gains on Monday to fresh multi-year highs beyond 1.3020 to 1.3065 thus far. An eventual push back towards a measured move objective of 1.4000 is now favored over the coming weeks/months. In the interim, we will stay on the sidelines and look for opportunities to buy back into the trend on dips to the previous triangle resistance now turned support. Strategy: BUY @1.2625 FOR A 1.3065 OBJECTIVE, STOP @1.2480.
AUD/USD - The sharp pullback last Thursday negated any positive price action earlier in the previous week with the market trading back with a heavy tone and adhering to the primary downtrend. Only a break back above 0.6555 would take the pressure off of the downside at this point and we look for a move back towards the recent range lows by 0.6285 over the coming session. Below 0.6285 will open a more significant retreat exposing the 0.6005 multi-year trend lows. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.
NZD/USD - The overriding bear trend remains intact with any rebounds showing little to no follow through. The market has failed to materially extend gains after last Wednesday's strong bullish outside day to once again put the focus back on the downside, exposing a retest and break of the multi-year trend lows from Wednesday at 0.4895. Below 0.4895 opens a more significant drop back towards the August 2002 lows in the 0.4500 area. Only back above 0.5195 delays. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.
Written by Joel Kruger, Technical Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com
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