Euro price action fails to provide clear short-term directional bias. Dollar/Yen flirts with 2009 highs but fails just shy. Cable shows relative strength and approaches 10-Day SMA. Dollar/Swiss consolidates ahead of fresh upside.Dollar/Cad stops trailed to lock additional profit. Australian Dollar puts in bullish inside day. New Zealand Dollar hourly head & shoulder top projects deeper setbacks.

EUR/USD


EUR/USD - More consolidation on Wednesday and it still remains unclear whether the pair is in the process of attempting to carve out a higher low ahead of fresh upside or prepping ahead of the next drop and a bearish continuation. Given our longer-term bearish bias we favor the bearish continuation scenario. Nevertheless, a break above 1.3345 or back below 1.3115 will be required for clear directional bias. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.

Level

Resistance

Details

1.3415

R3

3/19 low

1.3345

R2

3/31 high

1.3300

R1

3/30 high

Level

Support

Details

1.3115

S1

3/30 low

1.3070

S2

3/16 high

1.2985

S3

3/18 low

USD/JPY


USD/JPY - Setbacks have been well supported in the early week with the market initially dropping down to 95.95 but unable to extend any further before sharply reversing back above 99.00 on Tuesday. There is solid internal range support by 97.00 and we continue to favor additional upside over the coming sessions through the 2009 highs at 99.70 and above 100.00 towards the major 87.15 double bottom objective by 104.00. Only a close back under 97.00 delays. We put out a buy recommendation earlier at 97.75 but we do not expect this to be triggered. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.

Level

Resistance

Details

100.00

R3

Psychological

99.70

R2

3/5 2009 high

99.50

R1

4/1 high

Level

Support

Details

98.20

S1

4/1 low

97.10

S2

3/27 low

96.90

S3

3/24 low

GBP/USD


GBP/USD - Remains confined to a very prominent bear channel with the latest corrective rally stalling out by the 100-Day SMA to potentially set up the next medium-term lower top at 1.4780 (24Mar high). Look for additional weakness over the coming days with an eventual retest and break of the key trend lows at 1.3500 (23Jan low) favored. Only back above 1.4780 negates. However, with the pair now trading in the middle of the channel, the choppy nature of trade leaves us sidelined until a better opportunity presents itself. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.

Level

Resistance

Details

1.4725

R3

3/25 high

1.4640

R2

3/26 high

1.4495

R1

3/27 high

Level

Support

Details

1.4275

S1

4/1 low

1.4240

S2

3/31 low

1.4110

S3

3/30 low

USD/CHF


USD/CHF - The pair was very well supported on the recent dip to 1.1165 (3Mar low) with the 50% fib retracement off of the 1.0370-1.1970 move (1.1170) and the 200-Day SMA propping. The risk from here is for a fresh upside extension back towards the range highs by 1.1970 over the coming weeks. Last Friday's break above 1.1345 confirms bullish bias and any dips should now be supported ahead of this level. The 50-Day SMA comes in at 1.1570 and above here will once again accelerate. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.

Level

Resistance

Details

1.1720

R3

3/6 high

1.1570

R2

50-Day SMA

1.1550

R1

3/30 high

Level

Support

Details

1.1360

S1

3/31 low

1.1345

S2

3/23 high

1.1225

S3

200-Day SMA

USD/CAD


USD/CAD - The market has been trading within a bull channel over the past several weeks with the latest dips supported by channel support at 1.2190. Look for a medium-term higher low to carve out by 1.2190 ahead of a fresh upside extension back towards and through the key 2009 highs by 1.3065 from 9Mar. Only back under 1.2500 delays. Stops have been trailed again to lock profit on long position. Position: LONG @1.2365 FOR A 1.2765 OBJECTIVE, REVISED STOP @1.2565.

Level

Resistance

Details

1.2800

R3

3/16 high

1.2765

R2

3/17 high

1.2715

R1

4/1 high

Level

Support

Details

1.2590

S1

4/1 low

1.2500

S2

3/31 low

1.2445

S3

3/27 high

AUD/USD


AUD/USD - The market has stalled out by the 78.6% retrace (0.7050) off of the 2009 high-lows and looks to be in the process of rolling back over for a resumption of the broader downtrend. Bullish price action on Tuesday/Wednesday is somewhat concerning, but we retain our bearish bias while below 0.7000 on a close basis. A close back above 0.7000 negates and exposes the 2009 highs by 0.7270. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.

Level

Resistance

Details

0.7145

R3

1/8 high

0.7000

R2

Psychological

0.6970

R1

3/31 high

Level

Support

Details

0.6855

S1

4/1 low

0.6770

S2

3/30 low

0.6725

S3

3/19 low

NZD/USD


NZD/USD - The break to fresh multi-year highs last Thursday appears to have been a false break, with the market reversing course on Friday after failing by the 78.6% fib retrace off of the yearly high-lows. An hourly head & shoulders top has now carved out, which projects deeper setbacks to 0.5300 over the coming days. Daily studies confirm and show plenty of room for additional pullbacks. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.

Level

Resistance

Details

0.5785

R3

78.6% Fib

0.5735

R2

3/31 high

0.5670

R1

3/27 low

Level

Support

Details

0.5550

S1

3/25 low

0.5530

S2

4/1 low

0.5470

S3

3/18 high

Written by Joel Kruger, Technical Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com
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