Euro stalls out but still puts in daily higher high and higher low. Dollar/Yen profits booked on short positions. Cable sees intraday whipsaw trade but ends constructive. Dollar/Swiss goes parabolic to hit our long objective; fresh 2009 highs. Dollar/Cad price action taking the form of head & shoulders top. Australian Dollar still well capped below 0.6555. New Zealand Dollar breaks up to trigger minor double bottom.
EUR/USD - Despite the setbacks on Thursday, the market has put in a fresh daily higher high and higher low and holds above the 20-Day SMA. The door is now open for a more significant corrective rally over the coming days towards next key topside resistance by 1.2905-95 (25/23Feb highs). A break back below Wednesday's low at 1.2615 will now be required to shift focus back on the downside. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.
USD/JPY - Profits were booked on our short trade overnight with the hourly head & shoulders top triggering and opening a pullback to 95.65 thus far. However, the market has since rebounded quite sharply to trade back above 98.00 into the afternoon. Our bias is still mildly bearish and we look for a fresh lower top by today's high at 98.50 ahead the next downside extension back below 95.65 to the previous 2009 high/neckline of the major double bottom at 94.60. A break back above 99.00 will now be required to resume the uptrend. Position: SHORT FROM 98.25 BOOKED PROFIT @96.55; STAND ASIDE.
GBP/USD - Price action has been constructive on Wednesday and Thursday with the market putting in consecutive daily higher highs and higher lows. However, the overall structure remains grossly bearish and despite the mild recovery additional upside is seen as limited. Look to use any rallies towards the 20-Day SMA at 1.4170 as opportunities to build on existing short positions. Strategy: SIDELINED FOR NOW; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.
USD/CHF - Profits were booked on our long trade this morning with the market exploding out from the range lows and through the 2009 range highs at 1.1890 to 1.1970 ahead of the latest minor pullback. While we do favor additional upside to retest the 1.2300 2008 highs over the medium-term, we are not entirely convinced as yet of an official range break. Daily studies are mixed at current levels and we prefer to take to the sidelines until the next opportunity presents itself. Position: LONG FROM 1.1465 MET OBJECTIVE @1.1850. STAND ASIDE FOR NOW.
USD/CAD - The market has stalled out since posting fresh multi-year highs by 1.3065 on Monday, with the daily chart now starting to show a potential head & shoulders top. A break back below 1.2700 would be required to confirm and open a pullback towards the previous triangle resistance and rising trend-line support off of the 2009 lows in the 1.2500's. We will use dips towards this area to buy back into the broader up-trend. Strategy: BUY @1.2585 FOR A 1.3065 OBJECTIVE, STOP @1.2335.
AUD/USD - The bullish reversal day from Tuesday has taken the pressure off of the downside for now with the price action opening the door for some upside back towards 0.6555. However, with the market still so choppy and the underlying trend firmly bearish, we continue to stay on the sidelines until a more compelling opportunity presents itself. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.
NZD/USD - The latest break above 0.5095 triggers a minor double bottom on the daily chart that projects additional upside over the coming days back towards the 0.5300 area. The overriding trend however still remains intensely bearish and rallies back towards 0.5300 should be used as good entry levels for renewed short positions. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.
Written by Joel Kruger, Technical Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com
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Monday-Friday (between 5:30am-6:30am EST)
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