Euro holds below 61.8% fib off 1.3740-1.3115 move. Dollar/Yen finally breaks above key 100.00 psychological barriers. Cable extends gains to eye retest of key 1.4990 highs. Dollar/Swiss attempting to carve out fresh higher low above 1.1165. Dollar/Cad setbacks limited to rising channel support. Australian Dollar seen testing yearly highs into early week. New Zealand Dollar see sharp pullback from daily highs; direction still unclear.

EUR/USD


EUR/USD - The market has finally broken out from the latest sideways trade, surging above the recent consolidation highs at 1.3345 to 1.3515 thus far. The 61.8% fib retracement off of the 1.3740-1.3115 move comes in by 1.3500 and we would expect to see some pullback from here with the market still caught in some broader directionless trade. Next key level to watch above comes in at 1.3595 (27Mar high), while a break back below 1.3365 would be required to take the short-term pressure off of the topside. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.

Level

Resistance

Details

1.3650

R3

3/25 high

1.3595

R2

3/27 high

1.3515

R1

4/2 high

Level

Support

Details

1.3365

S1

4/3 high

1.3220

S2

4/2 low

1.3115

S3

3/30 low

USD/JPY


USD/JPY - We continue to favor additional upside over the coming sessions with the market having finally taken out psychological barriers at 100.00, to expose the major 87.15 double bottom objective by 104.00. Only a close back under 98.20 delays. Thursday's close above the 200-Day SMA (first time since September 2008) reaffirms bullish outlook. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.

Level

Resistance

Details

101.50

R3

10/9 high

101.00

R2

Figure

100.60

R1

11/4 high

Level

Support

Details

99.35

S1

4/3 low

98.40

S2

4/2 low

98.20

S3

4/1 low

GBP/USD


GBP/USD - Although recent price action would suggest that we could be in the process of carving out a material base, we are not convinced just yet and still see the market locked in a more significant bear trend. A break and close back above 1.4990 (9Feb high) would be required to shift us into the bullish camp and until then, we continue to look for opportunities to sell into rallies in anticipation of a resumption of setbacks. We will wait for daily readings to cross into overbought before considering fresh shorts. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.

Level

Resistance

Details

1.5000

R3

Psychological

1.4990

R2

2/9 high

1.4900

R1

Figure

Level

Support

Details

1.4650

S1

4/3 low

1.4565

S2

100-Day SMA

1.4450

S3

4/2 low

USD/CHF


USD/CHF -* Style Definitions */ p.MsoNormal, li.MsoNormal, div.MsoNormal {mso-style-parent:; margin:0in; margin-bottom:.0001pt; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:12.0pt; font-family:Times New Roman; mso-fareast-font-family:Times New Roman;} @page Section1 {size:8.5in 11.0in; margin:1.0in 1.25in 1.0in 1.25in; mso-header-margin:.5in; mso-footer-margin:.5in; mso-paper-source:0;} div.Section1 {page:Section1;} --> Setbacks have found support for now as expected in the low 1.1300's which acts as previous range resistance turned support. From here we see risks for a resumption of gains back above 1.1500 and through the recent trend highs at 1.1550. A confluence of moving averages in the 1.1500's initially capped rallies but the next attempt to the topside should easily exceed the SMAs. Only back under 1.1165 negates outlook and gives reason for pause. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.

Level

Resistance

Details

1.1550

R3

3/30 high

1.1490

R2

4/2 high

1.1390

R1

4/3 high

Level

Support

Details

1.1300

S1

Figure

1.1245

S2

200-Day SMA

1.1165

S3

3/19 range lows

USD/CAD


USD/CAD -The market has been trading within a bull channel over the past several weeks with the latest dips supported ahead of channel support at 1.2190. Look for a medium-term higher low to carve out by 1.2190 ahead of a fresh upside extension back towards and through the key 2009 highs by 1.3065 from 9Mar. We expect any additional weakness to continue to be supported by the rising trend-line which currently resides by 1.2200. Back above 1.2455 should act as a catalyst for a resumption of the broader up-move. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.

Level

Resistance

Details

1.2655

R3

3/31 high

1.2575

R2

20-Day SMA

1.2455

R1

4/3 high

Level

Support

Details

1.2300

S1

78.6% minor fib

1.2265

S2

3/27 low

1.2190

S3

3/19 high

AUD/USD


AUD/USD - Recent price action changes the picture a bit with the prospect of a major double bottom coming back into play. The neckline comes in by the 2009 highs at 0.7270 (7Jan high) with a break above to accelerate and potentially expose a measured move double bottom objective back above 0.8000. However, calling for a major bottom is still pre-mature and we are just as likely to see a test of the 0.7270 highs and subsequent failure back into the prominent range that has defined trade for the past several months. At a very minimum though, we would expect to see a test of 0.7270 over the coming sessions. We may look to sell a failure in this area with daily studies still looking overbought. Stay tuned. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.

Level

Resistance

Details

0.7360

R3

10/7 high

0.7270

R2

1/7 09 high

0.7230

R1

4/3 high

Level

Support

Details

0.7060

S1

4/3 low

0.6975

S2

4/2 low

0.6855

S3

4/1 low

NZD/USD


NZD/USD - The weekly highs coincide with the 78.6% fib retracement off of the 0.6085-0.4895 (Dec-Mar) move and this is the last chance for a reversal before the likelihood of a full 100% retracement to 0.6085. Back above 0.5900 should open a direct retest of the 2009 highs which come in at 0.6035, while failure to do so will put the focus back on the downside. A break below Friday's 0.5770 low would confirm topside failure. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.

Level

Resistance

Details

0.6085

R3

12/18 high

0.6035

R2

1/7 09 high

0.5900

R1

1/12 high

Level

Support

Details

0.5770

S1

4/3 low

0.5735

S2

3/31 high

0.5635

S3

4/2 low

Written by Joel Kruger, Technical Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com
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