Euro 200-Day SMA comes into focus. Dollar/Yen pulls back sharply, but additional setbacks limited. Cable above 50-Day SMA; can it hold. Dollar/Swiss breaks range but runs into 200-Day SMA. Dollar/Cad still constructive despite pullback. Australian Dollar could continue to test 2009 highs. New Zealand Dollar kisses 70 on daily RSI.

EUR/USD


EUR/USD - The market has gone parabolic over the past 24 hours with the price surging through the latest topside barriers at 1.3700 ahead of the latest minor pullback. Daily studies are now showing well overbought with the RSI above 70. However, given the intensity of the move, there is still scope for additional upside before a much needed and healthy pullback can take place. Next key resistance comes in by 1.3800 (8Jan high), with acceleration on a break to 1.3850-1.3900 (61.8% of 1.4720-1.2455/200-Day SMA). Back under 1.3415 is required to delay. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.

Level

Resistance

Details

1.3900

R3

200-Day SMA

1.3850

R2

61.8% Fib

1.3800

R1

1/8 high

Level

Support

Details

1.3500

S1

Psychological

1.3415

S2

3/19 low

1.3390

S3

1/19 high

USD/JPY


USD/JPY - The market has now reached its measured move objective off of the head & shoulders top by 99.70, and after slightly exceeding the previous 2009 high/major double neckline by 94.60 to 93.55, should finally found some support. There is a confluence of support by current levels in the form of the previous double bottom neckline, the 50% fib retrace off of the 87.15-99.70 move and the 50/100-Day SMAs. As such we would look for a fresh medium-term higher low to carve out at current levels ahead of the next major upside extension beyond 100.00. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.

Level

Resistance

Details

96.65

R3

3/19 high

95.65

R2

3/12 low

95.00

R1

Figure

Level

Support

Details

93.45

S1

50% fib/100-Day

93.20

S2

50-Day SMA

92.55

S3

2/20 low

GBP/USD


GBP/USD - Although the pair has now broken back above the 50-Day SMA, rallies above the moving average have proved to be fleeting since the onset of the major downtrend back in August 2008. The overall structure is still grossly bearish and a break back above the 1.4990 medium-term lower top from February 9 would ultimately be required to shift the structure. Daily studies however still show room to run with the next key resistance coming in by the 100-Day SMA at 1.4675. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.

Level

Resistance

Details

1.4700

R3

12/31 high

1.4675

R2

100-Day SMA

1.4665

R1

2/23 high

Level

Support

Details

1.4400

S1

Figure

1.4305

S2

3/6 high

1.4160

S3

3/19 low

USD/CHF


Usd/Chf - The latest sharp pullbacks below 1.1315 have signaled an end to the multi day range and opened the door to the current drop back to 1.1165 thus far. However, the pair should find some decent support at current levels in the form of the 50% fib retracement off of the 1.0370-1.1970 move (1.1170) and the 200-Day SMA (1.1195). Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.

Level

Resistance

Details

1.1500

R3

Psychological

1.1460

R2

3/19 high

1.1315

R1

1/27 low

Level

Support

Details

1.1165

S1

3/19 low

1.1110

S2

1/16 low

1.1070

S3

1/6 low

USD/CAD


USD/CAD - Despite the recent decline, the overall structure remains quite constructive with the current pullback still classed as corrective. Setbacks have broken down through the 61.8% fib retrace off of the 2009 low-highs and the 100-Day SMA at 1.2370 but are now struggling to establish below these levels. We are now looking for a medium-term higher low by current levels and above 1.2025 (28Jan low) ahead of the next upside extension beyond 1.3065. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.

Level

Resistance

Details

1.2630

R3

3/13 low

1.2505

R2

3/19 high

1.2430

R1

3/18 low

Level

Support

Details

1.2265

S1

61.8% fib

1.2190

S2

3/19 low

1.2025

S3

1/28 low

AUD/USD


AUD/USD - The daily chart is looking far more constructive today with the market potentially attempting to carve out a major bottom by 0.6005 (27Oct low). There is scope now for additional upside back towards the 0.7270 2009 highs over the coming days, but ultimately we would once again expect to see renewed selling by 0.7270 with the overriding trend still grossly bearish and the daily charts overbought. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.

Level

Resistance

Details

0.7050

R3

78.6% Fib

0.7000

R2

Psychological

0.6945

R1

3/19 high

Level

Support

Details

0.6805

S1

3/18 high

0.6725

S2

3/19 low

0.6625

S3

100-Day SMA

NZD/USD


NZD/USD - Daily studies are just crossing into overbought with the RSI now kissing the 70 level. The current rally has also stalled by the 61.8% fib retrace off of the 2009 low-highs by 0.5600 and the risks from here are for a pullback and resumption of the broader downtrend. However, given the nature of the price action in the markets, we will remain sidelined until a better opportunity presents itself. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.

Level

Resistance

Details

0.5760

R3

1/13 high

0.5700

R2

Figure

0.5610

R1

3/19 high

Level

Support

Details

0.5470

S1

3/18 high

0.5400

S2

3/19 low

0.5345

S3

3/16 high

Written by Joel Kruger, Technical Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com
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