Total crude oil and petroleum products stocks declined -4.63 mmb to 1074.56 mmb in the week ended September 30. Crude stockpile fell -4.68 mmb to 336.28 mmb as 3 out of 5 PADDs recorded stock draws and Gulf Coast inventory plunged -5.24 mmb. Cushing stock also fell -0.83 mmb to 30.09 mmb. Utilization rate fell -0.1% to 87.7%.

Gasoline inventory dropped -1.14 mmb to 213.72 mmb although demand slipped -0.06% to 8.989M bpd. Imports dropped -6.65% to 0.51M bpd while production edged up +0.08% to 9.29M bpd during the week. Distillate inventory slipped -0.74 mmb to 156.93 mmb as demand jumped +7.39% to 4.10M bpd. Production gained +2.37% to 4.67M bpd while imports soared +36.67% to 0.21M bpd during the week.

WTI crude oil price rebounded to 78.84 after the report as crude inventory surprisingly fell. Distillate and gasoline stockpiles were also down during the week. However, the near-term outlook remained dismal amid global economic concerns and worries about European sovereign crisis.

Weekly change in inventory as of 30/09/11 ActualChangeConsensusPrevious
Crude oil 336.28 mmb-4.68 mmb+2.50 mmb-6.70 mmb
Gasoline 213.73 mmb-1.14 mmb+1.30 mmb

+1.94 mmb

Distillate 156.93 mmb-0.74 mmb-0.50 mmb+1.71 mmb

Comparison between API and EIA reports:

API (Sep 30) EIA (Sep 30)
ActualInventoryPreviousForecast (using API's inventory level)Inventory
Crude oil-3.07 mmb344.22 mmb+0.57 mmb+3.27 mmb344 mmb
Gasoline-4.97 mmb212.39 mmb+4.62 mmb

-2.47 mmb

212 mmb
Distillate-1.97 mmb155.01 mmb-0.22 mmb-2.66 mmb155 mmb

API collects stockpile information on a voluntary basis from operators of refineries. Data from the API and DOE have moved in the same direction 71% of the time over the past 52 weeks

Source: Bloomberg, API, EIA

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