Last week, I highlighted the reasons why gold could move higher with modest global growth, which happens to be the most likely scenario in the coming years. Another possible scenario, if the situation in Europe continues to improve and we are able to avoid any black swans, involves a robust economic growth period.
A global economic boom would need the chips to fall in the right place for another year or so before it could be experienced. Not only does Europe need to get its house in order, but the emerging markets need to continue with strong growth as they keep inflation in check. And, finally, the United States must move toward austerity and, at the same time, avoid cutting off the spigots that are needed to keep the economy growing and people off the unemployment lines.
The likelihood of a return to robust growth is less than 20 percent, considering all the moving parts that need to be in sync. That being said, there is a chance it could happen and the scenario needs to be analyzed in the event it occurs.
The Euro and Gold
A realization that the European Union will not collapse, and that the rest of the PIIGS, sans Greece, will no longer need bailouts, would be a godsend for the economic optimists. One of the first reactions to such a scenario would be a pickup in economic growth in the region, followed by a stronger stock market, and a rally in the Euro.
Over the last year, as the Greece situation worsened, one of the victims was the EU's currency, the Euro. The currency fell to its lowest level in over a year versus the U.S. dollar, as investors viewed the greenback as a much safer alternative.
As money begins to flow back into the Euro, it will naturally come out of the U.S. dollar safety trade and push the greenback lower. Due to the inverse correlation between the greenback and gold it would be a positive for gold prices.
Matt McCall is founder and president of Penn Financial Group, an investment advisory firm that specializes in ETFs and individual portfolio management. Matt is the author of two investment books: The Swing Trader's Bible: Strategies to Profit from Market Volatility and The Next Great Bull Market: How to Pick Winning Stocks and Sectors in the New Global Economy. He is a regular host on the Fox News Channel. His credits include: The Wall Street Journal, CNBC, Business Week, Bloomberg TV, and Investor's Business Daily, to name a few. You can check out his Web site here: www.MatthewDMcCall.com