Julian Callow, economist at Barclay's Capital, revised her forecast. Bundesbank President Weber has commented that he sees for monetary policy 'a certain room for manoeuvre that we will use'. In our view, this is as good as announcing that the ECB will lower its refinancing rate at its next meeting on 2 April. We have been flagging up this as a risk but now we make it our baseline: we now look for a 50bp reduction in the refinancing rate on 2 April rather than in May. AB