Energy Metro Desk Natural-Gas Storage Survey – for the Energy Information Administration’s 11/29/12 report.
Just in case there was any question about additional builds coming down the pike this year, all we have to say is, NO. No chance. As such, 3,929 Bcf is the final high gas mark for the year, easily trumping last year's 3,852 Bcf final tally.
This week's EIA report should be a BIG surprise. First, the range of forecasts this week are all over the lot; second, the spread between the three categories we track is a whopping 5 Bcf - all we need is a 3 point diff to call a surprise EIA report of 5 Bcf high/low of the report tally. Last week's beefy draw and subsequent reclassification of 7 Bcf in the Producing Region should also scramble everybody's numeric tealeaves even further this year. Our Metro Desk Consensus came in lowish at -8 Bcf and our editor was even lower at -5 Bcf. Bentek is also predicting down side risk to this week's draw - that is a smaller draw than everybody expects. Between -2 and -8 Bcf should be right in the zone, therefore.
Chilly conditions continue for the remainder of the week on the East Coast with highs only in the 30s and 40s in New England on Friday and Saturday. Warmth, however, eventually wins out as it expands across the Plains and Midwest over the upcoming weekend and into the East next week. Variability continues to show up by the middle of the 6-10 day period that continues chip away at the warmth, but in a change from yesterday we increased the variability in the 11-15 day as well. The primary effect of this was to warm the East Coast slightly, while still bringing some bursts of below normal temperatures at times.
Energy Metro Desk editors forecast this week: - 5 Bcf
Current Storage Level: 3,873
Surplus over 2011: +24 Bcf (.6%)
Surplus over 5 Yr Avg: +168 Bcf (4.5 %)
Notes of Note:
**Last week's weather was 9% warmer than 2011 and 11% warmer than the 5-year average.
**Since September, weather has been 2% cooler than 2011 and 4% cooler than the 5-year average.
**84% of HDDs remain ahead of us for the heating season 2012-2013
**Pipeline flows show average US gas demand decreased 3.6 Bcf/d (-5.2%) w-o-w to 65.7 Bcf/d;
**Residential/commercial demand decreased 1.6 Bcf/d (-5.5%) with the warmer temperatures;
**Industrial demand remained relatively unchanged at 18.8 Bcf/d;
**Average nuclear output increased 1.3 GW w-o-w;
**US dry gas production increased 200 MMcf/d (0.3%) w-o-w to average 64.5 Bcf/d;
**Net imports remained flat at 3.4 Bcf/d w-o-w.
**Canadian imports decreased 200 MMcf/d w-o-w;
**Exports to Mexico fell 300 MMcf/d, averaging 1.2 Bcf/d.
Early View Range for Next Week: -40 to -90 Bcf
Last 4 Reports: 30 Bcf or 7.5 Bcf per week
Last 4 Reports, 2011: 159 or 39.75 Bcf per week
Last 4 Reports, 5 Yr Avg: 113 Bcf or 28.25 Bcf per week
Each week, we poll 40 professional storage forecasts for our weekly Natural-Gas Storage Box Scores (as seen in each bi-weekly issue of Energy Metro Desk*). This is North America's biggest and most comprehensive natural-gas storage survey and report.
*Disclaimer: The information in the Market Commentaries was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed therein constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any futures or options contracts.
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