Previewing the Energy Information Administration’s 12/13/12 report.
Each week, we poll 40 professional storage forecasts for our weekly Natural-Gas Storage Box Scores (as seen in each bi-weekly issue of Energy Metro Desk*). This is North America's biggest and most comprehensive natural-gas storage survey and report.
It's gonna be a showstopper this week folks, we can feel it. The range of forecasts is fairly wide: +7 to -10 Bcf. Last Friday's Early View was even wider: +2 to -22 Bcf. This week always seems to give the market a bit of trouble though. Last year's report is a good example. This time last year, the market had been treated to five straight weeks of surprises. The range between forecast categories this week was a whopping 4.2, further pointing to a surprise this week. Our consensus this week came in at -1.8 Bcf and the median was -3 Bcf, well below the other surveys. Lots of confusion out there this week.
A stormy and chaotic final 1/3 of December is on the table currently as the models show a series of storms and changing temperature conditions that prevent a stable pattern regime. Today's 6-10 day changes are to the colder side due to the southward track adjustment of the biggest storm expected toward early to middle next week. This system could generate significant snow to some East Coast city locations (will need to watch it closely). Mainly storm-induced cooling behind that storm could be stronger than our outlook briefly, but otherwise, we track another transient warm ridge that builds into the mid-continent late in the 6-10 and then reaches the East Coast by the late 11-15 day. Behind that ridge, a possibly stronger cold push is seen dropping into the mid-continent toward Texas and the Midwest.
Energy Metro Desk editors forecast this week: + 2
Current Storage Level: 3.804 Bcf
Surplus over 2011: - 33 Bcf
Surplus over five-year average: +168 Bcf
Notes of Note:
**Manufacturing sector capacity utilization was down 0.8% from the revised number for September. Capacity is up 1.4% YOY.
**ISM's Purchasing Manufacturer's Index for November fell 2.2% to 49.5% from 51.7% in October. This marks the fourth month in the last six months that the manufacturing sector has contracted.
**Canadian net imports totaled 4.6 bcf/d, up 0.1 week/week
**LNG sendout totaled 0.3 bcf/d, up 0.1 week/week
**Mexico exports totaled 1.3 bcf/d, up 0.1 week/week.
**Total outages were down 22GW week on week.
**Nuclear outages were down 11GW to 11GW
**Coal outages decreased 10GW to 14GW
**Overall outages are down 14GW relative to prior year levels due to decreased coal outages YOY.
**Last week, weather was 35% warmer than last year and 43% warmer than the 5-year average.
**Since September, weather has been 2% and 6% warmer than last year and the 5-year average.
Early View Range for Next Week: -70 to -120 Bcf
Last Year: - 100 Bcf
Four-year average: -144 Bcf
*Disclaimer: The information in the Market Commentaries was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed therein constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any futures or options contracts.
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