Wow,what a celebration! Just call it a European holiday as oil and commodity bulls just rejoice. With the banks in Europe ready to take a 50% Greek haircut and as China helps beef up the EU's emergancy rescue fund, prices soared. What are the details? Who needs details when a rally never felt so good. Now if that wasn't enough of a reason for the market to rally, how about the fact that the US is not in a recession. Commodity traders around the world were convinced we were and traded accordingly. Yet now they have to take it back while the US posted .5% GDP driven by consumer spending. Looks like a lot of candy will be bought for Halloween! Commodity bulls thought trading yesterday was like taking candy away from a baby.
Is it just too good to be true? Sure it is! While the comeback gets us more in line with reality, prices have come too far too fast. Despite the happy feelings, we all know that the European sovereign debt crisis is far from over. In fact it isn't over until we say it is. The lack of details and fears that the players won't be able to put it in place means that we will see more skepticism as we move forward. Beware of profit taking!
The EU is touting their three-pronged plan by giving Greek debt a Telly Savalas hair cut by 50%, increased the European Financial Stability Facility and told the banks to raise their capital and agreed to help them do so. Add to that another 184 billion for Greece and we were off the races. Of course we have seen this story before! Enjoy it while it lasts!
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