Oil traded down to the 90 handle before bouncing a bit as we head into what will be a historic week in energy. We will see the first oil in the gulf from the reversal of the Seaway Pipeline, a watershed event that is symbolic of the changing energy dynamic here and around the globe. As the US and Canada take advantage of new technologies, North America will now be an exporter to the new emerging markets.

At the same time a showdown with Iran looms. A visit by weapon inspectors to Iran is raising hopes that perhaps sanctions will force Iran into better behavior.

In the meantime oil supply in the US most likely rose again. Supply, already at a 22-year high, will rise as Canadian and domestic production will increase supply again at Cushing, Oklahoma. Look for crude to rise by 2.0 million barrels. Gas could increase by 2 million barrels and distillates will fall by 1.0 million barrels. Runs will increase by 1.5%.

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