If at first you don't succeed then schedule another meeting. The EU rallied global commodity markets as it seems they are going to try again and again to come up with a solution to allow an orderly Greek default and a plan to bail out European banks. So much for the Sunday deadline for the comprehensive EU plan but at least if they keep talking the market believes that the odds are higher of an agreement on a plan to save the euro zone from itself.

While the Greek default does not seem to be an issue fears that a disagreement on how to monetize the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) threatened to derail the entire deal and cause a meltdown of the European banks and a deflationary collapse across the globe. The French are very concerned the plan to just print more euro's endorsed by Germany and the EU would only be short-term bandage on the wound and might lead to another economic crisis down the road. Instead France wants to make the EFSF a bank that is accountable. A bank that has to put up its assets up as collateral to borrow more money from the European Central Bank. A bank that could issue bonds but create a plan to be profitable and self sustaining. The disagreement led to fears by traders that the plan would fall apart. Yet a joint statement by France and Germany that they will hold a second summit had traders believing rightly or wrongly that the chances for a deal are rising.

The stakes are obviously high and the final details of the plan may determine just how bullish or bearish oil prices are. Oh sure the death of former Libyan leader Moammar Gadhafi was historic but priced in to a certain extent. We learned how important Libyan oil was in filling the void of declining North Sea production.

Yet that too may change as the latest big North Sea discovery will take pressure off of the Bent crude market in the coming years. A major find in the North Sea just keeps getting bigger and bigger! Dow Jones reports Norway's oil and gas major Statoil ASA (STO) Friday said its giant North Sea discovery Aldous Major South is estimated to contain double the volume compared with previous estimates, sending the shares of Statoil and its partners higher. Statoil, partly state-owned and the largest player on the Norwegian continental shelf, said the find is estimated to contain between 900 million and 1.5 billion barrels of recoverable oil equivalent. This compares with its previous statement that the find would contain between 400 million and 800 million barrels. So much for the Brent forever leading the WTI things that change may once again by the same again.

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Phil Flynn
Research Division
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