Getting Blown Away.

The oil market is getting blown in different directions. On one hand, Friday's dismal jobs report would seem to suggest that demand for oil will be bad in the US. That drove oil lower on Friday. Yet on the other hand the weak jobs number means the Fed should keep the stimulus machine stimulating. In fact if we see more weak data it may even raise the possibility of more quantitative easing in the future. That would be dollar bearish and commodity bullish. That seems to be one of the reasons that oil is rallying this morning. Another reason is weather.

Hurricane Ida is a killer storm and is shutting down production in the Gulf of Mexico. Matt Rogers at Commodity Weather Group, LLC says that hurricane Ida is currently a category one storm (90 mph sustained) but is weakening rapidly as it travels northward through the central Gulf. The Commodity Weather Group says that, While the Hurricane Center is being cautious by forecasting hurricane strength at landfall, the pronounced overnight weakening trend suggests it should enter the far eastern production region as a tropical storm at best. A combination of much cooler water temperatures and wind shear should continue to weaken the feature.

At this point it seem unlikely that there will be any major damage to the facilities in the Gulf yet the market has to be cautious. It is hard to determine how much of the rally in oil is Ida related and how much is it is dollar related.
Yet at the same time it seems that OPEC is pumping more oil. Mark Shenk With Bloomberg News reports that,   OPEC is increasing output at the fastest pace in two years, adding to near-record inventories and threatening speculators betting on $100 crude with losses. Shenk says that the number of options contracts to buy oil at $100 by March almost quadrupled in October and increased another 5.9 percent so far this month. As traders piled in, OPEC boosted production 4 percent, or 1.1 million barrels a day, since March amid the worst global recession since World War II. Saudi Arabia's King Abdullah has targeted $75 oil as a fair price for consumers and producers and has the capacity to increase pumping by about 50 percent, or 4 million barrels a day, enough for all of Brazil. The prospect of more supply comes with inventories in industrial countries already the highest since 1998, when oil collapsed to $10.

Bloomberg is also reporting that, China, the world's second-largest energy user, will raise gasoline and diesel prices by 480 yuan a ton from tomorrow to reflect higher crude oil costs.

We are playing the swings! If you want to get involved just call me at 800-935-6487 or email me at to open your account today! Also check out the Fox Business Network where you can see me every day! And if you're interested in buying gold and silver check out our link for our innovative approach. Make sure you are signed up for my daily energy blast where we will soon be offering special extras!

We're long December crude from apprx 7727 - raise stop to 7745!  
Buy December RBOB at 19000 - stop 18800.
Buy December heating oil at 19700 - stop 19500. 

Announcing the PFGBEST Research Division

CHICAGO, Nov. 9, 2009 - PFGBEST® today announced it has completed the integration of Alaron Research into its new PFGBEST Research Division.  PFGBEST acquired the customer assets of Alaron in May 2009 and the integration of a strong and reputable analytic team from that acquisition expands the research capabilities that PFGBEST can offer its global client base of retail and professional traders and investors.

The integration provides opportunities for the newest PFGBEST customers to utilize the PFGBEST suite of more than 20 electronic trading platforms spanning futures, Forex, and options, along with products created for low barrier to entry participation in managed accounts and managed Forex products, a precious metals acquisition program for all account sizes, and many other opportunities for retail investors as well as institutional clients.  

The PFGBEST Research Division features daily and intraday commentaries and recommendations from brokers and analysts throughout the organization.  Phil Flynn is one of the most recognizable names in energy market analysis, providing up-to-the-minute insights on investment and risk management in petroleum, gasoline and energy markets. Phil's market commentary, fundamental and technical analysis, and long-term forecasts are sought by industry executives, institutions, personal investors and media everywhere. 

PFGBEST analysts also cover grains, ethanol, metals, stock indexes, the economy, livestock, softs, forex - essentially every exchange-traded sector and product.

The goal of PFGBEST Research is to provide an environment where great ideas are developed as expert analysts are brought together to share viewpoints and to apply the market-centric wisdom of the crowd, said PFGBEST President and Chief Operating Officer Russell R. Wasendorf, Jr.

He added, Through its proprietary research capabilities, PFGBEST has been advocating on behalf of retail futures market participants for more than 20 years. The ability to leverage these highly experienced sector analysts and to grow a leading Research team and a suite of research-driven products is a win:win for our company, our broker distribution network, and our expanding global client base.

For more information, visit


PFGBEST is among the largest non-clearing U.S. Futures Commission Merchants, with customers, affiliates and brokerage offices in more than 80 countries. It was incorporated as an FCM in 1990 under the name PFG, Inc.  It offers a range of trading and investor products and services for retail investors as well as for commercial and institutional clients. The company is a leader in sustainable investing through diversified products including managed funds, futures, forex, options, full-service and discount brokerage, precious metals, trader education, market research, and direct online trading through its BESTDirectTM platform, and numerous other platforms and applications.  Please visit

Phil Flynn

Senior Market Analyst