Get the ear muffs out. Oil bears gets frosted as cold temperatures give the energy complex a Columbus Day boost. Global warming takes a holiday as heaters across the country seemed to go on much earlier than usual.
Stunning records for cold were set across the nation increasing the demand for heating fuels over the weekend. The Chicago Marathon, according to the Chicago Tribune, had its coldest start since a 33 degree low in 2002 which they say was a far cry from 2007 when temperatures soared into the upper 80s and officials canceled the marathon after 3 1/2 hours into the event. In Denver it was reported that an artic cold front moved in and broke a cold temperature record that stood for 104 years. In fact on Friday, Denver saw temperatures plunge 23 degrees in five hours setting the stage to make that record low. There were record lows in many parts of the country like Wyoming, Utah, Illinois and Iowa and if records were not broken in many areas it was extremely close.
The early blast of winter is giving oil a bit of a boost on this lightly traded holiday market. It kind of makes you wonder what happened to global warming. In fact that is what the BBC is wondering in an article titled, Whatever happened to Global Warming? The BBC said, This headline may come as a bit of a surprise, so too might that fact that the warmest year recorded globally was not in 2008 or 2007, but in 1998. But it is true. For the last 11 years we have not observed any increase in global temperatures. And our climate models did not forecast it, even though man-made carbon dioxide, the gas thought to be responsible for warming our planet, has continued to rise. The BBC asks, So what on Earth is going on? Climate change skeptics, who passionately and consistently argue that man's influence on our climate is overstated, say they saw it coming. They argue that there are natural cycles over which we have no control, that dictate how warm the planet is. But what is the evidence for this? During the last few decades of the 20th century, our planet did warm quickly. Skeptics argue that the warming we observed was due to the energy from the sun increasing. After all 98% of the earth's warmth comes from the sun. But research conducted two years ago, and published by the Royal Society, seemed to rule out solar influences. The scientists' main approach was simple: to look at solar output and cosmic ray intensity over the last 30-40 years, and compare those trends with the graph for global average surface temperature. And the results were clear. Warming in the last 20 to 40 years can't have been caused by solar activity, said Dr Piers Forster from Leeds University, a leading contributor to this year's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). A must read online for global warmers and skeptics alike.
Despite the fact that we are having an early winter supplies of heating fuels are more than adequate. Use the weather strength to sell in to. As soon as it warms up oil should cool down. Trilby Lundberg reported that the average price of regular gasoline in the United States has dropped 4.5 cents to $2.47 over the last two weeks. Trilby says that the average price for a gallon of mid-grade was $2.61. Premium was at $2.73.
There was some confusion on the entry on our natural gas trade. Instead of saying to sell at 499 we said sold at 499. The high of the day was 499 so for the purpose of this trade we will say we were not filled. Sorry about the confusion.
Sell November crude at 7270 - stop 7390.
Sell November heating oil at 18900 - stop 19200.
Sell November RBOB at 18620 - stop 18770.
Sell November Natural gas at 510 - stop 515.
The Dan Flynn Corn & Ethanol Report
Monday October 12th 2009
Good Morning !
Happy Columbus Day !
Record cold temperatures have a lot of people wondering where is the global warming .It seems to me that Al Gore wants slam his agenda down our throats. In the meantime December Corn is trading at 372 as I write which puts it up 9 3/4 cents higher. The range is 372 1/2 to 364 1/2 .
Traders will be receiving estimates this week of how bad the damage has been done to the crop with this frost. And also see how long the current cold conditions will last. The Dollar continues to get spanked and the Energies are trading sharply higher due to weather and week Dollar.
Have a Great Trading Day !