As the East Coast and the largest city in the United States gets ready for Franken-storm the energy markets will price in the risk and the balance between lost supply and the destruction of demand. While the storm will shut down 6.5% of US refining capacity and motorists will top off their tank the shutdown of major cities and the expected power outages may take a toll on demand unlike anything we have seen before. The impact on demand may not last for hours but more than likely for days. This could be the biggest demand destruction event in history. The East Coast is by far the largest consumer of gasoline as they consumed 3,20200 barrels per-day.

   

EIA Gas Consumption in Thousand Barrels per day

 

Feb-12

Mar-12

Apr-12

May-12

Jun-12

Jul-12

View
History

  
 

U.S.

 

8,622

8,633

8,817

8,996

9,035

8,819

1945-2012

  
 

East Coast (PADD 1)

 

3,059

3,122

3,164

3,193

3,202

3,100

1981-2012

  
 

Midwest (PADD 2)

 

2,389

2,356

2,444

2,545

2,600

2,518

1981-2012

  
 

Gulf Coast (PADD 3)

 

1,419

1,392

1,399

1,439

1,363

1,347

1981-2012

  
 

Rocky Mountain (PADD 4)

 

324

312

300

300

314

331

1981-2012

  
 

West Coast (PADD 5)

 

1,431

1,452

1,511

1,519

1,555

1,522

1981-2012

  
 
 

They Are Also the  Second Largest Consumer of distillates

 

 

GraphClear

Feb-12

Mar-12

Apr-12

May-12

Jun-12

Jul-12

View
History

 

U.S.

 

3,980

3,706

3,704

3,745

3,729

3,552

1945-2012

 

East Coast (PADD 1)

 

1,313

1,130

1,039

1,024

964

986

1981-2012

 

Midwest (PADD 2)

 

1,089

1,077

1,126

1,171

1,205

1,116

1981-2012

 

Gulf Coast (PADD 3)

 

916

849

855

860

831

720

1981-2012

 

Rocky Mountain (PADD 4)

 

191

187

184

188

197

215

1981-2012

 

West Coast (PADD 5)

 

472

463

499

503

532

515

1981-2012

 

 

 

 
 

 

  

Bloomberg News reported “West Texas Intermediate futures slid as much as 1 percent, while prices of the motor fuel advanced as much as 1.9 percent. Sandy will probably make landfall tomorrow, according to a National Hurricane Center advisory. Phillips 66, NuStar (NS) Energy LP and Hess Corp. (HES) said they are shutting or reducing output at New Jersey refineries as a precaution against the storm that may become the worst to hit the region in 100 years.”

Gas Prices in East Coast have risen only modestly as the rest of the country they continue their retreat. In New York City we have only seen prices go up about a nickel and in other states on the East coast they have actually fell. The fear may come in the aftermath of the storm as heating oil supply is historically tight. 

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