Can anyone save the dollar? The sun may come out tomorrow but is anybody betting their bottom dollar that the dollar may find a bottom tomorrow? Come what may, the dollar has been the major influence on the petroleum prices and yesterday, if only for a moment, the dollar took a back seat to a wildly bearish Energy Information Agency oil inventory report. Still with the dollar talking another drubbing overnight the question is, can anyone save the dollar?
Well they may try. Yesterday Russia and China were reportedly buying dollars. Overnight Dow Jones News reported that the sinking dollar prompted a wave foreign exchange intervention by central banks in South Korea, Taiwan, the Philippines and Thailand seeking to limit damage to their export industries. Still half hearted intervention measures may only add to the dollars bearishness. Intervention rarely works over the long term and if it is to have a chance, we may need to see a coordinated global effort. In the mean time with strong economic data coming out of Australia and Germany it is putting even more pressure on the beleaguered dollar. One can only wonder how high oil might have gone if it were not for the bearish inventory numbers.
Remember last week when everyone just seemed giddy about gasoline demand? Well that was last week and last week is gone. How about this week? This week the market was slapped down by an unusual unseasonable build in gasoline supply. The EIA reported that total motor gasoline inventories increased by 2.9 million barrels last week. That is not supposed to be happening at this time of year and really knocked the complex for a loop. As for crude oil we are swimming in it. In data compiled from the EIA from Barbara Powell at Bloomberg she points out that crude supply that currently stands at 337.4 million barrels. That is 10.1% higher than the fiver year average. Gasoline supply is 6.9% higher that the five year average and distillates a whopping 30.1% higher than the five year average. These figures represent what can only be described as a glut. And if it isn't a glut it is the closet thing we have had to a glut in the last five years.
Sell November crude at 7270 - stop 7390.
We're short November heating oil from apprx 18300 - lower stop to 18200!
We're short November RBOB from apprx 17820 - stop 17700!
We're short November natural gas from apprx 499 - stop 513.
The Dan Flynn Corn & Ethanol Report
Thursday October 8th 2009
Good Morning !
The December Corn is trading at 364 1/4 which is
up 4 1/2 cents as I write.The range is 365 1/2 to 358 3/4.
Continued delays in harvesting and forecast of an early
frost are major factors in this rally.
Tomorrows Grain Report will give traders an estimation
of how much damage has been done to the supposed bumper
Energies continue to follow the Crude Oil market.
Technically it must break through support at $68
to be the move to the downside I'm looking for.
Have a Great Trading Day !