Sometimes a crisis can make the market go up and sometimes down. The Dubai Crisis knocked oil out of its old trading range only for Pirates and the Iranians to knock us back into it. How does the old poem go? Carry trade and go away, sell again some other day.
The carry trade is back in vogue as the Dubai crisis gets put behind us and the Iran crisis is now ahead of us. Oil prices started to rebound to the lower end of the old trading range back above the old breakout point of 75 dollars. Yet oil surged late on a report that British sailors were taken into custody by Iran.
Iran went on a temper tantrum as their buddies Russia and China voted to censure Iran in a strongly worded chiding by the UN's International Atomic Energy Agency. They lashed out and said not only would they not stop working on their clandestine nuclear plant but they would build 10 more. Wow they can do that! Boy that will teach us. They also threatened to hold their breath until they turn blue. When the global markets failed to pay attention to their bluster maybe that is when they decided to take some hostages. Ah yes, hostage taking always gets some attention. And the oil market paid attention as it rallied on reports that 5 British sailors were detained after their racing yacht was stopped by the Iranian navy while sailing from Bahrain to Dubai. It seems that there are worries that these sailors could be used as bargaining chips in the Iranian nuclear negotiations. If you do the math that is one sailor for every 2 nuclear plants that Iran plans to build. These negations could take some time.
Now you add to that the Somalia pirates are back at it again hijacking a Greek flagged oil tanker carrying $20 million dollars worth of crude! The high seas are just a dangerous place.
The crisis in Dubai is also having an effect on oil production. Will Dubai pump more oil to make back some lost revenue? Well OPEC may not increase production. Dow Jones is reporting that Qatar's oil minister says that OPEC will keep their output quotas unchanged at it December meet in Angola despite fears that Dubai's debt crisis could weigh on the demand side. In my opinion, there will be no action, no change, Abdulla bin Hamad Al Attiyah told Zawya Dow Jones in a telephone interview. The market situation is still volatile and growth is still fragile so it is best that there is no change, Al Attiyah added.
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Buy January crude at 7570 - stop 7470.
Buy January RBOB at 19550 - stop 19400.
Sell January heating oil at 21000 - stop 21200.
Buy January natural gas at 465 - stop 460.