Demand Side Economics.
Forget about supply for the moment, the focus is all on demand. Just like the lack of demand for the shunned greenback and the prospect for better oil demand in the future.
Oil prices continue their assault on higher prices because of better than expected China exports and a weakening dollar. Front month crude posted a new high for the year yet due to contango, the November contract is still short of its own personal contract high which was 7589 set June 29 of this year. Oil bulls have a free hand as delayed inventory reports allows them to not have to think about the current supply glut at least for a couple of hours in favor of the promise of improving demand. It is easier to be boldly bullish when oil inventory is delayed by a day so why not focus on demand hopes. Most of those hopes are coming out of Asia.
Yesterday those demand hopes centered on Asian auto sales and today it is about exports. China exports fell by 15.2%. The street was calling for a larger drop, in the area of 21 percent. At the same time China imports fell by less than expected giving analysts hope once again that China's economy might be improving faster than anticipated. This drove the Shanghai stock market higher as well as the Yuan forwards to a 13 month high and the dollar to another 18 month low. This type of activity seems to suggest that China's economic growth is heating up even more.
Oil bulls also got excited yesterday by the fact that auto sales in China hit 1.2 million units in September. For the year expectations are that they will sell a whopping 12.6 million cars! That is a lot of gas consumption. But what was even more interesting was that sales in Japan beat expectations, selling 3.5% more cars in the month of September. Japanese car sales totaled 321,737 vehicles according to the Japan Automobile Dealers Association. U.S. auto sales looked dismal by comparison as the cash for clunkers hangover hurt US sales. That discrepancy added further pressure to the dollar and gave the yen and yuan more support. The strong car sales not only boosted oil but gave platinum a ride as well. Platinum, a metal used in catalytic converters, found strong support on that data. Overnight, as expected, Japan kept their interest rates unchanged.
On the geo-political front it looks like Russia will not support sanctions against Iran. That increases the possibility that some countries, like, oh I don't know like maybe Israel, may stage an attack on their nuclear facilities. Trade talks say it may happen by December but of course what do traders know?
If it hasn't been cold enough for you this ought to send chills down your spine! Senator Barbara Boxer will take up climate change bill hearings in late October. Happy Halloween!
Always get the latest on never boring Fox Business Network where you can see me every day! And if you want to trade anything from stocks to futures or foreign exchange you need to open your account with PFGBest! Not only gas and grains but metals, gold coins, bars and even stocks. If your broker is not doing enough for you call me at 800-935-6487 or email me at email@example.com.
Sell November crude at 7650 - stop 7750.
Sell November RBOB at 18620 - stop 18770.
Sell November heating oil at 19630 - stop 19830.
Buy November natural gas at 410 - stop 370.
The Dan Flynn Corn & Ethanol Report
Wednesday October 14th 2009
Good Morning !
The December Corn is trading at 385 1/4 as I write which puts it up 3 1/2 cents.The range was 386 to 378 1/4. Weather factors and continued delays in harvesting have traders wondering how much damage has been done ! With dollar crush continuation trading at 7585 down 31 1/2
as I write. The downward spiral continues to propel Energy prices. However I do anticipate a major break in prices sooner than later. Business Inventories Retail Sales and NOPA Crush due out
at 7:30 C.S.T.
Have a Great Trading Day !