Many investors have currently a buy-on-dips stance and they will try to get in at the 900-level in S&P500. However CDS-prices are trading higher not buying into the positive stock market sentiment.


Economic Data Releases
CountryNameTime (GMT)ExpectationPriorComment
UK08:30Industrial Production MoM (MAR)-0.9%-1.0%
UK08:30DCLG House Prices YoY (MAR)-13.0%-12.3%
US12:30Trade Balance (MAR)-$29.0B-$26.0

Earnings Releases
CountryNameTime (GMT)ExpectationPriorComment
DC-A.P.Moller - Maersk-724.0002314.000

What's going on?

The China Bulls must be disappointed: CH Exports down 22.6% YoY and Whole Sale Prices down 7.1% YoY. Copper reacting negatively.

US Stocks in general closing 2% down led by financial shares. Stocks looking toppish here, but beware of long-term investors on the sideline. Many investors have a buy-on-dips stance and they should try to get in around 900 in S&P500 today. CDS prices generally higher – both in Itraxx and especially in our CDS Index.

JPY-crosses look very toppish and could head significantly lower. Also look for AUD weakness as metal prices decline.

GM says that it is 'more probably that it will have to file bankruptcy'.


EquitiesDaily stanceComment
DAX0/-Sell at the break of 4836 targeting 4792 initially, 4747 finally. S/L above 4892.
FTSE0/-Sell at the break of 4426 targeting 4377 initially, 4332 finally. S/L above 4477.
S&P5000/-Sell at the break of 908 targeting 892. S/L at 918.


CommoditiesDaily StanceComment
Gold(XAUUSD)0/+Buy on dips towards 908 and target 924. Stop below 903.
Silver(XAGUSD)0/-Sell at the break of 13.69 and target 13.50 with a close stop.
Oil (CLM9)-Sell around 58 with a stop above 58.85. Target 56.60.


FXDaily stanceComment
EURUSD0Neutral. Buy at the break of 1.3670. Sell at the break of 1.3550.
EURJPY0/-Sell on rallies towards 132.90 and target 131.50. Stop above 133.40.
USDJPY0/-Sell on rallies towards 97.80 and target 96.80. Stop above 98.
GBPUSD0/-Sell at the break of 1.5070 and target 1.4980. Stop above 1.51.
EURNOK-Sell around 8.75 and target 8.65. Stop above 8.80.

FX Options



EURUSDVols and RRs are better bid during yesterday's session and most signs are indicating a higher EURUSD. We expect spot to range between 1.36-1.37 next few sessions.
USDJPYRisk reversals became bid this session and vols are higher so we see market starting out nervous as spot threatens to break lower. Spot likely to move under 9700 level.
AUDUSDMid curve vols finds support as there have been decent moves in spot and risk reverals Are also finding bids. Gamma should come off if spot continues to push higher.