Ben Bernanke said yesterday in a statement that the last resort will be to nationalize banks. He expects that the different aid programs will contribute to the stabilization of the US financial system


Economic Data Releases
CountryNameTime (GMT)ExpectationPriorComment
UKGDP YoY (4Q)09:30-1.9%-1.8%
USExisting Home Sales MoM15:001.1%6.5%
USDOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories15:301250K-138K

Earnings Releases
CountryNameTime (GMT)ExpectationPriorComment

What's going on?

Banks will be today's winners in the European equity market after Ben Bernanke testified yesterday that major US institutions will not be nationalized. He expects that the different aid programs will contribute to the stabilization of the financial system.

The French government is continuing with is 'dirigism' buying a strategic portion of 8.33% in Valeo (French car-parts maker).

The US consumer confidence was out yesterday 25 - all time low. It seems as if the US consumers have lost confidence - also in the effects of the Obama packages.


FXDaily stanceComment
EURUSD+Suppt at 1.2790-00 needs to hold for a re-test 1.2880-85. Above sees acceleration to 1.30.
EURJPY+Suppt now at 124.15-25 ahead of next push through 125.0 to target 125.30.
USDJPY+Still buy dips to 96.50-60 for next leg higher. Next target 98.0.
GBPUSD+Above 1.4575 sees move to 1.4660 again. Else suppt at 1.4450 tested.
AUDUSD+Look for suppt at 0.6475-80 to hold for push through 0.6535-45 for 0.66+.


EquitiesDaily stanceComment
DAX+Buy at the break of 3952 targeting 4045. S/L at 3925.
FTSE+Buy at the break of 3842 targeting 3900. S/L at 3819.
S&P500+Buy at the break of 780 targeting 808. S/L at 770.


CommoditiesDaily StanceComment
Gold (XAUUSD)0/-Further shakeout of longs expected. Res now at 980.0 for a test of 950-952 suppt.
Silver (XAGUSD)0/-Contained below 14.0 now. Ranging 13.60-13.90 with a softer bias
Oil (CLJ9)0/+Rebound on Wall St puts upside in focus again. Suppt 37.80, target 41.50

FX Options

EURUSDSaw increased interest in buying EUR puts in the front end. Risk reversals still unaffected by this yet so likely that spot continues trading in this range with downside bias.
EURCHF/USDCHFLarge buyers of 1w and 2w ATM options in both pairs which indicate a move lower in spot for both.
USDJPYVols eased off slightly at the Tokyo opening but came back bid with topside strikes once again being paid. Risk reversals in the front end are around flat now.


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