Ben Bernanke said yesterday in a statement that the last resort will be to nationalize banks. He expects that the different aid programs will contribute to the stabilization of the US financial system
|Economic Data Releases|
|UK||GDP YoY (4Q)||09:30||-1.9%||-1.8%|
|US||Existing Home Sales MoM||15:00||1.1%||6.5%|
|US||DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories||15:30||1250K||-138K|
What's going on?
Banks will be today's winners in the European equity market after Ben Bernanke testified yesterday that major US institutions will not be nationalized. He expects that the different aid programs will contribute to the stabilization of the financial system.
The French government is continuing with is 'dirigism' buying a strategic portion of 8.33% in Valeo (French car-parts maker).
The US consumer confidence was out yesterday 25 - all time low. It seems as if the US consumers have lost confidence - also in the effects of the Obama packages.
|EURUSD||+||Suppt at 1.2790-00 needs to hold for a re-test 1.2880-85. Above sees acceleration to 1.30.|
|EURJPY||+||Suppt now at 124.15-25 ahead of next push through 125.0 to target 125.30.|
|USDJPY||+||Still buy dips to 96.50-60 for next leg higher. Next target 98.0.|
|GBPUSD||+||Above 1.4575 sees move to 1.4660 again. Else suppt at 1.4450 tested.|
|AUDUSD||+||Look for suppt at 0.6475-80 to hold for push through 0.6535-45 for 0.66+.|
|DAX||+||Buy at the break of 3952 targeting 4045. S/L at 3925.|
|FTSE||+||Buy at the break of 3842 targeting 3900. S/L at 3819.|
|S&P500||+||Buy at the break of 780 targeting 808. S/L at 770.|
|Gold (XAUUSD)||0/-||Further shakeout of longs expected. Res now at 980.0 for a test of 950-952 suppt.|
|Silver (XAGUSD)||0/-||Contained below 14.0 now. Ranging 13.60-13.90 with a softer bias|
|Oil (CLJ9)||0/+||Rebound on Wall St puts upside in focus again. Suppt 37.80, target 41.50|
|EURUSD||Saw increased interest in buying EUR puts in the front end. Risk reversals still unaffected by this yet so likely that spot continues trading in this range with downside bias.|
|EURCHF/USDCHF||Large buyers of 1w and 2w ATM options in both pairs which indicate a move lower in spot for both.|
|USDJPY||Vols eased off slightly at the Tokyo opening but came back bid with topside strikes once again being paid. Risk reversals in the front end are around flat now.|
Analysis Disclosure & Disclaimer
Saxo Bank A/S shall not be responsible for any loss arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained. The contents of this publication should not be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by Saxo Bank that clients will profit from the strategies herein or that losses in connection therewith can or will be limited. Trades in accordance with the recommendations in an analysis, especially leveraged investments such as foreign exchange trading and investment in derivatives, can be very speculative and may result in losses as well as profits, in particular if the conditions mentioned in the analysis do not occur as anticipated.
Saxo Bank utilizes financial information providers and information from such providers may form the basis for an analysis. Saxo Bank accepts no responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of any information herein contained.
Any recommendations and other comments in Saxo Bank's analysis derive from objective fundamental macro economical and company specific calculations, statistical and technical analysis, and subjective general market assessment.
If an analysis contains recommendations to buy or sell a specific financial instrument, such recommendation should be seen as Saxo Bank's opinion that the specific instrument will respectively outperform the relevant market or underperform compared to the market. Saxo Bank's recommendations should statistically correspond to an even distribution between buy and sell recommendations.
The recommendations may expire promptly due to market volatility and in general, Saxo Bank does not anticipate its recommendations to be valid more than one month. An analysis will be updated if and only if a market development or other issues relevant to the analysis render a new analysis on the same topic relevant. Saxo Bank's analysis does not cover any specific financial product over time but only products which Saxo Bank's strategy team finds it important to cover at any given point in time.
In order to prevent conflicts of interest, Saxo Bank has established appropriate business procedures, incl. procedures applicable to research and analysis to ensure objective research reports. Saxo Bank's research reports have not been discussed with the parties, e.g. issuers of securities, mentioned in the analysis.
Saxo Bank is under supervision by the Danish Financial Supervisory Authority. Saxo Bank does not engage in corporate finance activities and accordingly, Saxo Bank's employees, incl. the persons responsible for an analysis, do not receive remuneration associated with investment banking transactions.