EU Fails to Compromise on Budget Plan

By Roger Baettig | November 23 2012 5:36 AM

Asian and European markets caught focus as the US was on Thanksgiving Day holiday yesterday. Improvement in China manufacturing PMI buoyed confidence that the world’s second largest economy has been picking up in an encouraging pace. In the Eurozone, EU finance ministers failed to agree on the budget for the next 7 years. Greek and Spanish yields slipped. For the former the market awaited the meeting between Greek Prime minister Antonio Samaras and Eurogroup President Juncker. Germany’s Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble stated that he is opposed to any haircut on official holdings of Greek debt, as this move is not allowed by the budget law. For Spain, sentiment was sent higher as bond auctions were well-received.

REUTERS

Luxembourg's Prime Minister and Eurogroup Chairman Jean-Claude Juncker, Belgium's Finance Minister Didier Reynders (C) and European Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner Olli Rehn (R) address a news conference at the end of a European Union finance ministers meeting at the European Union Council in Brussels November 28, 2010.

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In China, the flash manufacturing PMI compiled by the HSBC/Markit rose to 50.4 in November, the first time in 13 months. Details of the report sent a mixed picture, while the “new export orders” index soared to 52.4 while the “new orders” index grew at a slower rate. The HSBC noted “that the economic recovery continues to gain momentum towards the year end” but the recovery remains “fragile” as it’s still in its early stage. The government needs to continue its policy easing to stimulate the economy. Eurozone’s PMI data was also mixed. While the manufacturing PMI improved to 46.2 in November from 45.4, the services data slipped -0.3 point to 45.7 during the month.

EU officials failed to agree on the budget plan for 2014-2020. Germany’s Chancellor Merkel concerned about spending and stated that it should not be too high in times of “budget consolidation in all of Europe”. British Prime Minister David Cameron said that “it is quite wrong for there to be proposals for this increased extra spending in the EU. So we are going to be negotiating very hard for a good deal for Britain’s taxpayers”. French PM Hollande insisted on farm support, saying it is “not a French policy, it’s a European policy”.

Concerning the peripheral economies in the Eurozone, Spain sold 3.88b euro of bonds, exceeding the maximum target of 3.5B euro. As the country has already met it funding need this year, the proceeds would be for matching 2013’s target which has risen to 207B euro from 186B euro this year.

On the dataflow today, Germany’s business climate IFO probably fell to 99.5 in November from 100 a month ago. “Current assessment” and “expectations” indices are also expected drop during the month. In Canada, headline inflation probably eased to +1.0% y/y in October from +1.2% a month ago.

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