UK's Recession may be at an end according to the Institute of Chartered Accountants

  • The Institute surveyed over 1,000 chartered accountants across England and their index rose to 4.8 at the end of June, from -28.2 in March.  This was the biggest rise for two years suggesting Britain's recession is at an end.  The institute predicts the UK's economy will grow by 0.5% in the third quarter after the economy shrank by 0.8% in the second quarter of 2009.
  • Many are now optimistic that the global recession is ending with Germany, France and Japan emerging out of recession.  However, a well noted economist, Nouriel Roubini, warns of a double-dip recession because of risks related to ending global monetary and fiscal stimuli.  The New York University professor was the man that called the collapse of the US housing market, predicting it would trigger a world-wide recession.
  • Lower profit at Chinese companies and evidence of increasing loan losses in the US eased demand for risky assets.  Asian stocks fell; USD holds firm and the yen crosses tumble down from yesterday's highs.
  • According to Obama's senior adviser the President is due to announce today that the Federal Reserve Chairman, Bernanke, will be nominated to a second term.  Bernanke's current four-year term as chairman ends January 31, 2010.

Currency to watch out for: GBPUSD & USDJPY

  • The GBPUSD pivot point is at 1.6475 with a preference to enter into short positions at 1.6465
  • The USDJPY pivot point is at 94.60 with a preference to enter into short positions at 94.55

Today's calendar and market movers:

  • US Case Shiller month on month expected to drop to 0.2%
  • US Consumer Confidence is expected to rise to 47.5
  • US Richmond Manufacturing Index expected to rise to 17

Stocks:

  • US stocks take a break after a 4-day rally that lifted the major indexes to 10-month highs.  A sharp gain in US Treasury debt prices drove benchmark yields lower.  This triggered a sell-off in the stock market after initial advancing higher.  The Dow closed higher 0.3%, the S&P lower by 0.05% and the NASDAQ lower by 0.14%.
  • As of 06:10 GMT the Nikkei is trading at -0.8% and the Hang Seng at -1.1%.