The euro falls on comments from Trichet and is headed for a second weekly loss against the dollar on speculation the ECB's president will today reiterate the bank will refrain from raising interest rates.

  • The key idea that stuck with investors from Trichet's ECB conference yesterday is that the economic recovery will be bumpy and it is too early to start exiting from stimulus measures helping stabilize the economy.
  • Traders expressed their disappointment over the president's comments by selling the euro and buying the dollar, sending the EURUSD down over 100 pips.  The euro may struggle to regain yesterday's losses on speculation that Trichet will restate his less than hawkish views on the economy later today at the ECB Watchers Conference in Frankfurt.
  • The G-20 finance ministers and central bankers will meet today in London to discuss measures to foster a recovery in the global economy.  One of the main focus points for the upcoming G-20 conference is the timing of the exit strategy from their fiscal and monetary stimulus efforts aiding the economic recovery from the worst global recession since World War II.
  • According to economists ahead of the NFP report today, it is estimated that employers in the US probably cut another 225,000 jobs in August, and the jobless rate increased to 9.5%, underscoring threats to consumer spending.  The projected drop in payrolls, if realized, would be the smallest since August 2008, and follow 247,000 jobs losses in July.

Currency and Commodity to watch out for: EURUSD & Gold

  • The EURUSD pivot point is at 1.4325 with a preference to enter into short positions at 1.4315.
  • The gold pivot point is at 995.40 with a preference to enter into short positions at 992.00

Today's calendar and market movers:

  • Canada Employment Change expected to rise to -12,400
  • US Non-Farm Employment Change expected to show a -225,000 for August
  • US Unemployment Rate expected to rise to 9.5% from 9.4%


  • US stocks ended positive, snapping a four-day losing streak, after stronger-than-expected retail sales eased concerns about the economy ahead of today's important NFP report.
  • As of 06:05 GMT the Asian markets are mixed with the Nikkei trading at -0.27% and the Hang Sent at 0.53%.