EU Morning Report

Euro remains under pressure as Greece's problems resume

  • The euro recovered some of its losses during yesterday's US session after the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the European Union reached an agreement on Greece. Fears of a Greek default eased after the IMF appeared willing to offer further financial aid to Greece as long as the new austerity plan is approved. This gave the euro a temporary relief but the euro still remains under pressure as political reforms in the Greek parliament add further on the uncertainty that surrounds the country. Against the dollar, the euro rose to 1.4222 up from a three-week low at 1.4073 and the pair was last traded at 1.4131. Versus the safe haven Swiss franc, the euro dipped to a record low yesterday at 1.1946 from 1.2125.
  • The US dollar strengthened against high yielding currencies but fell against the safe haven Swiss franc and Japanese yen. The dollar got a boost after better than expected economic data from the US, with Initial Jobless Claims falling to 414 thousand while the market expected 420 thousand. Building Permits as well as Housing starts also revealed positive figures. Heightened risk aversion and escalating concerns over the euro zone debt problems further support the safe haven currency. Against the Japanese yen, the dollar fell to 80.48 from 81.02. Against the Swiss franc, the dollar fell to 0.8469 from 0.8550. Yesterday, the Swiss National Bank decided to keep interest rates unchanged at 0.25%.
  • Sterling resumes its fall after Retail Sales disappointed investors by showing worse than expected figures. Retail Sales fell 1.4% while the market expected a 0.6% fall. The poor data came a day after it was revealed that the number of Unemployed people in the UK surprisingly rose at the fastest pace in almost two years. Fears of a double dip recession are growing while expectations of an interest rate hike start to fade. Versus the dollar, sterling dipped to 1.6078 from 1.6224.
  • Oil prices fell to 94.16 dollars a barrel today from 95.72. Gold edged lower at 1521.47 dollars an ounce from 1532.95. Silver also ticked lower to 35.15 dollars an ounce from 35.76. 

Currencies to watch out for: EURUSD & USDJPY  

  • § The EURUSD pivot point is at 1.4215 with a preference to enter Short positions at 1.4205
  • § The USDJPY pivot point is at 80.90 with a preference to enter Short positions at 80.85
  • § The OIL pivot point is at 96.20 with a preference to enter Short positions at 96.20
  • § The Gold pivot point is at 1535 with a preference to enter Short positions at 1535                        

Today's calendar and market movers:

  • § Europe Trade Balance in April is forecast to fall to 1.9B
  • § US Consumer Sentiment Index in June is forecast to fall to 74

Equity Markets:                                               

US equities were positive on Thursday with the S&P500 trading up 0.18% and the DJIA up 0.54%. The European bourses were negative with the FTSE trading down -0.76%, the DAX down -0.07% and the CAC down -0.38%. The NIKKEI and the HSI at the time of writing are trading down -1.86% and -0.35% respectively.

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