Eyes turn to the ECB monetary policy meeting

  • The euro plummeted yesterday on growing concerns over Greece's plan for a referendum on the new bailout deal. Eurogroup announced that the Greek referendum will take place on December 4-5. Risk aversion in the market is heightened after German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy said that Greece will not receive another cent of financial aid until it decides it wants to remain a part of eurozone. Investors fear that Greeks may vote down the rescue plan which may lead to a Greek default. Against the dollar, the single currency fell to 1.3662 today from 1.3827, a decline of 1.2%. Eyes turn to the European Central Bank Interest rate decision and the following press conference by the new ECB President Mario Draghi.  
  • The US dollar edged higher against a basket of currencies during yesterday's US session after the Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting. Interest rates were kept unchanged and no indication for a third round of quantitative easing was made during Fed Chairman Bernanke's press conference. Bernanke said that a gradual improvement in economic activity is expected but the pace of the progress is likely to be slow. ADP Employment Change showed higher than expected figures in October and this may be an indication for Friday's Non Farm Payrolls data. Focus turns to the US Initial Jobless Claims, ISM Manufacturing and Factory Orders.
  • The Australian dollar declined yesterday as risk aversion dominates the markets. Economic data also weighed on the Aussie after Retail Sales showed poor figures. Versus the dollar, the Aussie slid to 1.0202 from 1.0427.
  • Oil prices edged lower today falling to 90.79 dollars a barrel from 93.76. Gold rose to 1744.03 dollars an ounce yesterday from 1714.95. Silver jumped to 34.40 dollars an ounce from 33.05 but today it fell to 33.25.

OUTLOOK  ?

 

Pivot

Preference1

Sentiment2

 

EURUSD

1.3825

SHORT @ 1.3825

  • § 51% of deals buy EUR

 

USDJPY

79.00

SHORT @ 79.00

  • § 64% of deals buy USD

 

GBPUSD

1.5975

SHORT @ 1.5975

  • § 50% of deals buy GBP

 

AUDUSD

1.0350

SHORT @ 1.0350

  • § 63% of deals buy AUD

 

GOLD

1720

LONG @ 1720

  • § 55% of deals buy GOLD

 

OIL

92.10

SHORT @ 92.10

  • § 57% of deals buy OIL

1data generated by Trading CentralTM, 2data obtained from easy-forex Inside ViewerTM

CALENDAR ?     

Currency

Time (GMT)

Event

Forecast

 

USD

12:30

Initial Jobless Claims  

400K

 

EUR

12:45

ECB Interest Rate Decision

1.5%

 

USD

14:00

ISM Non-Manufacturing in October

53.5

 

USD

14:00

Factory Orders in September

-0.1%

 

EQUITIES     ?      

EUROPE

 

US

 

ASIA3

 

 

FTSE 100

1.15%

?

S&P 500

1.61%

?

NIKKEI

-2.21%

?

 

DAX

2.25%

?

DJIA

1.53%

?

HSI

-1.97%

?

 

CAC

1.38%

?

NASDAQ

1.27%

?

CSI

0.54%

?

3at the time of writing

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