FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - In the March 11th email on eur/$, affirmed the view that the market was putting in an important bottom (see longer term below), and adding that there was scope for an upside acceleration (broke above the bearish trendline/ceiling of the falling wedge since late Jan that day, see daily chart below). The market has indeed rallied sharply since then, on way toward 1.3840/50 (62% retracement from the Dec high at 1.4715), with eventual gains back to that 1.4715 high still favored ahead. On a near term basis however, the market is overbought after the last few weeks of sharp gains, with risk starting to rise for at least a few days/week of consolidating and 500-600 tick retracement. For now, with no firm signs of a top of that magnitude, would stay long (bought on Feb 9th at 1.2930), but would take profits on a close below 1.3575/90 (previously broken 50% retracement from the 1.4715 high), as it would suggest a near term bearish false break. Note that is would not change the bigger picture bullish view, but would suggest a deeper correction first (and would be looking to rebuy at lower levels if taken out).
Longer term, the view for months of an extended period of wide ranging remains in place, with gains all the way back to the Dec high at 1.4715 (and even slightly above) still favored as part of this longer term period of wide consolidating (see ideal scenario in red on weekly chart/2nd chart below). In the March 11th email and with the market just above the base of its range since Oct at 1.2335 (and testing the base of the nearly 5 year bullish channel), said it was a good area to rebuild longer term longs/have a bullish bias. For now, would maintain that positive bias but will be looking for signs of a potentially important, longer term top on approach of the 1.4715 high. Note too that the ceiling of the multi-year channel is currently just above there.