Just to take a break from the heavily traded majors, I’m signaling a possible opportunity on EURCHF with possible entry signals as we speak.
1) Price is now below 1.5080, in the middle of weekly triangle & right below the H4 & D1 support. All we need for this bear setup to be confirmed is to see the daily closing here (H4 closed below already, but the candle was not convincing enough).
2) The daily waves are indicating (at least!) a large ABC starting 1.5446 with targets as low as 1.49. This last level corresponds with the 61% fib of the D1 1.4576-1.5446Â wave up.
3) 1.5086 confirmed that we broke the D1 / H4 triangle down, however since we are not far from that level & I don’t usually trust triangle breakouts too much this is not my first argument.
4) This triangle breakout occurs in the direction of D1, H4 & H1 waves, which all point down at this time.Â The H4 shows we should be in a wave C on the black level, then a wave 3 on the blue & a possible wave 3 on the light green H1 formation. All this strongly favors shorts while this alignment lasts.
5) The H4 moving averages picture looks bearish as well, with a swing failure indicating south & an overall bearish alignment on all time frames below D1 strengthening this view. A lot of consolidation on this pair lately and a relatively tight range for the last 1 month indicates that a short-term move is bound to happen. Since there are already several bearish scenarios confirmed but no real bullish signs just yet, im expecting this breakout to be in the direction of the short-term
6) 1.5150 is the immediate level canceling this setup, with 1.5180 & 1.5240 possibly confirming reversal signals. If EURCHF reaches above 1.5110 before or right after London open i suggest you postpone the entry until at least the H4 breakout is clearly in effect.
Good luck & let me know what you think!