EUR/CHF's rebound from 1.2401 extended further to as high as 1.2950 last week and formed a temporary top there after hitting 38.2% retracement of 1.3833 to 1.2401 at 1.2948. Initial bias is neutral this week and some sideway trading might be seen first. Note that current development suggests that rebound from 1.2401 is correcting whole fall from 1.3833. Above 1.2950 will bring another rise towards 61.8% retracement of 1.3833 to 1.2401 at 1.3286. On the downside, break of 1.2724 will indicate that such rebound is finished and should flip bias back to the downside for 1.2401 low instead.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.6287 (2007 high) is still in progress and in any case, medium term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.3833 resistance holds. The current down trend would likely continue through 1.2 psychological level towards 100% projection of 1.5138 to 1.2765 from 1.3833 at 1.1460, which is close to long term projection level at 1.1516.

In the long term picture, fall from 1.6827 should be resuming whole down trend from 1993 high of 1.8234. Sustained trading below 1.3 psychological level will send the cross further lower to 138.2% projection of 1.8234 to 1.4391 from 1.6827 at 1.1516.

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