EUR/CHF engaged in choppy sideway trading below 1.3067 short term top last week. The development argues that rebound from 1.2401 is not over yet. Initial bias is neutral this week. On the upside, above 1.3035 will bring resumption of rise from 1.2401 towards 61.8% projection of 1.3833 to 1.2401 from 1.3067 at 1.2182. Note that we're treating rebound from 1.2401 as a correction in the larger down trend, and hence, we'd expect strong resistance at 1.2182 fibonacci level to limit upside and bring reversal. On the downside, break of 1.2724/2779 support zone will in turn indicate that such rebound from 1.2401 is finished and will turn outlook bearish to extend the larger down trend.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.6287 (2007 high) is still in progress and in any case, medium term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.3833 resistance holds. The current down trend would likely continue through 1.2 psychological level towards 100% projection of 1.5138 to 1.2765 from 1.3833 at 1.1460, which is close to long term projection level at 1.1516.

In the long term picture, fall from 1.6827 should be resuming whole down trend from 1993 high of 1.8234. Sustained trading below 1.3 psychological level will send the cross further lower to 138.2% projection of 1.8234 to 1.4391 from 1.6827 at 1.1516.

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