EUR/CHF's rebound from 1.2401 extended further to as high as 1.3203 last week and further rise could still be seen as long as 1.3043 minor support holds. However, at this point, we're still treating rebound from 1.2401 as a correction only and hence, we'd expect strong resistance at 61.8% retracement of 1.3833 to 1.2401 at 1.3286 to limit upside and bring reversal. Below 1.3043 will turn bias back to the downside for 1.2779 support first. However, note that sustained trading above 1.3286 fibonacci level will dampen this view and turn focus back to 1.3833 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.6287 (2007 high) is still in progress and in any case, medium term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.3833 resistance holds. The current down trend would likely continue through 1.2 psychological level towards 100% projection of 1.5138 to 1.2765 from 1.3833 at 1.1460, which is close to long term projection level at 1.1516. However, break of 1.3833 will confirm medium term bottoming and should bring strong rebound to 1.4315 resistance and above.

In the long term picture, fall from 1.6827 should be resuming whole down trend from 1993 high of 1.8234. Sustained trading below 1.3 psychological level will send the cross further lower to 138.2% projection of 1.8234 to 1.4391 from 1.6827 at 1.1516.

/

/

/

/