EUR/CHF's fall from 1.3203 extended further to as low as 1.2894 last week and touched 38.2% retracement of 1.2401 to 1.3203 at 1.2897. The development, with daily MACD crossed below signal line, suggests that rebound from 1.2401 is over. Initial bias remains on the downside this week for deeper decline to 1.2779 support next. On the upside, above 1.3028 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring recovery. But risk will now remain on the downside as long as 1.3203 resistance holds.
In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.6287 (2007 high) is still in progress and in any case, medium term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.3833 resistance holds. The current down trend would likely continue through 1.2 psychological level towards 100% projection of 1.5138 to 1.2765 from 1.3833 at 1.1460, which is close to long term projection level at 1.1516. However, break of 1.3833 will confirm medium term bottoming and should bring strong rebound to 1.4315 resistance and above.
In the long term picture, fall from 1.6827 should be resuming whole down trend from 1993 high of 1.8234. Sustained trading below 1.3 psychological level will send the cross further lower to 138.2% projection of 1.8234 to 1.4391 from 1.6827 at 1.1516.