EUR/CHF dropped to as low as 1.2704 last week and made a temporary low there after touching 61.8% retracement of 1.2401 to 1.3203 at 1.2707. Initial bias is neutral this week and some consolidations could be seen first. But upside is expected to be limited by 1.2894 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.3203 to 1.2704 at 1.2895) and bring fall resumption. As discussed before, whole rebound from 1.2410 is completed at 1.3203 already. Below 1.2704 should target a test on 1.2401 low first.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.6287 (2007 high) is still in progress and in any case, medium term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.3833 resistance holds. The current down trend would likely continue through 1.2 psychological level towards 100% projection of 1.5138 to 1.2765 from 1.3833 at 1.1460, which is close to long term projection level at 1.1516. However, break of 1.3833 will confirm medium term bottoming and should bring strong rebound to 1.4315 resistance and above.

In the long term picture, fall from 1.6827 should be resuming whole down trend from 1993 high of 1.8234. Sustained trading below 1.3 psychological level will send the cross further lower to 138.2% projection of 1.8234 to 1.4391 from 1.6827 at 1.1516.

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