EUR/CHF's rebound from 1.2704 extended further to as high as 1.3023 last week but should made a temporary top there and retreated. Initial bias is neutral this week. As discussed before, current outlook is quite mixed. Downside of the fall from 1.3203 was contained well by 61.8% retracement of 1.2401 to 1.3203 while rebound from 1.2704 was limited by 61.8% retracement of 1.2704 to 1.3203. We'll stay neutral first. On the downside, below 1.2892 will suggest that rebound from 1.2704 was a correction and fall from 1.3203 is still in progress. Further break of 1.2704 will target a retest on 1.2401. Above 1.3023 will in turn argue that fall from 1.3203 was a correction and would bring stronger rally through 1.3203 high eventually.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.6287 (2007 high) is still in progress and in any case, medium term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.3833 resistance holds. The current down trend would likely continue through 1.2 psychological level towards 100% projection of 1.5138 to 1.2765 from 1.3833 at 1.1460, which is close to long term projection level at 1.1516. However, break of 1.3833 will confirm medium term bottoming and should bring strong rebound to 1.4315 resistance and above.

In the long term picture, fall from 1.6827 should be resuming whole down trend from 1993 high of 1.8234. Sustained trading below 1.3 psychological level will send the cross further lower to 138.2% projection of 1.8234 to 1.4391 from 1.6827 at 1.1516.

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