EUR/CHF Weekly Outlook

By Roger Baettig | August 20 2011 10:26 AM

EUR/CHF edged higher to 1.1554 last week but lost momentum since then. Initial bias remains neutral this week and some consolidations would be seen below 1.1554 temporary top first. But note that another rise will remain mildly in favor as long as 1.0920 support holds. Above 1.1554 will target 1.1891 and possibly above. However, break of 1.0920 will indicate that rebound from 1.0061 has completed and will flip bias back to the downside for retesting this low.

In the bigger picture, the strength of the rebound from 1.0061 argues it's a medium term bottom and EUR/CHF has turned into a phase of medium term consolidation. Sustained trading above 55 days EMA will bring stronger rise back to 1.2399/3243 resistance zone but strong resistance should be seen there to bring reversal. On the downside, decisive break of parity is needed to confirm down trend resumption. Otherwise, we'll now stay neutral in the cross and at least expect some more consolidations above there.

In the long term picture, the long term down trend from 1.6827, which is part of the multi-decade decline from 1993 high of 1.8234, is still in progress and has just met 161.8% projection of 1.8234 to 1.4391 from 1.6827 at 1.0609. We will not consider the possibility of reversal before seeing a pattern or before a break of 1.2399 resistance. The down trend is expected to extend to 200% projection at 0.9141 next.

EUR/CHF