EUR/CHF's rebound from 1.0061 extended to as high as 1.1734 last week and closed strongly. Initial bias remains on the upside this week and further rise should be seen to 1.1891 resistance next. Break will target medium term resistance zone of 1.2399/3243. On the downside break of 1.1163 minor support is needed to signal short term reversal. Otherwise, we'll stay cautiously bullish in EUR/CHF even in case of retreat.
In the bigger picture, the strength of the rebound from 1.0061 argues it's a medium term bottom and EUR/CHF has turned into a phase of medium term consolidation. Sustained trading above 55 days EMA will bring stronger rise back to 1.2399/3243 resistance zone but strong resistance should be seen there to bring reversal. On the downside, decisive break of parity is needed to confirm down trend resumption. Otherwise, we'll now stay neutral in the cross and at least expect some more consolidations above there.
In the long term picture, the long term down trend from 1.6827, which is part of the multi-decade decline from 1993 high of 1.8234, is still in progress and has just met 161.8% projection of 1.8234 to 1.4391 from 1.6827 at 1.0609. We will not consider the possibility of reversal before seeing a pattern or before a break of 1.2399 resistance. The down trend is expected to extend to 200% projection at 0.9141 next.