After edging higher to 1.1971, EUR/CHF formed a short term top there and dropped sharply. Rebound from 1.0061 should have completed and EUR/CHF should have started a falling leg inside the consolidation pattern from 1.0061. Initial bias is mildly on the downside this week for 61.8% retracement of 1.0061 to 1.1971 at 1.0791 and below. Though, we'd expect strong support above 1.0061 to contain downside and bring another rebound to continue the consolidation from 1.0061. On the upside, above 1.1464 minor resistance will flip bias to the upside for a test on 1.1971 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, a medium term bottom is formed at 1.0061 and EUR/CHF should have entered into a phase of medium term consolidation. While stronger rise could be seen as the consolidation unfolds, we'd expect strong resistance from 1.2399/3243 resistance to limited upside On the downside, decisive break of parity is needed to confirm down trend resumption. Otherwise, we'll now stay neutral in the cross and at least expect some more sideway trading above there.

In the long term picture, the long term down trend from 1.6827, which is part of the multi-decade decline from 1993 high of 1.8234, is still in progress and has just met 161.8% projection of 1.8234 to 1.4391 from 1.6827 at 1.0609. We will not consider the possibility of reversal before seeing a pattern or before a break of 1.2399 resistance. The down trend is expected to extend to 200% projection at 0.9141 next.

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