EUR/CHF dropped sharply to as low as 1.4905 last week and the strong break of 1.5007 support dampens our bullish view. Instead, it opens up the bearish case that whole fall from 1.5880 is still in progress. Initial bias remains on the downside this week as long as 1.5005 minor resistance holds and further fall could be seen towards 1.4577 support next. On the upside, above 1.5005 will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations. But risk will remain on the downside as long as 1.5138 resistance holds.
In the bigger picture, the strong break of 1.5007 support argues that rebound from 1.4557 has completed after failing to take out 55 weeks EMA decisively. Whole decline from 1.5800 might be resuming and a break of 1.4557 will target a test on 2008 low of 1.4315. A break of 1.5138 resistance is needed to be the first signal that choppy fall from 1.5446 has completed and revive the case the rise from 1.4577 is still in progress. Otherwise, outlook will now remain bearish.
In the long term picture, outlook is rather mixed for the moment. On the one hand, the corrective three wave structure of the rise from 1.4391 to 1.6827 is arguing that fall from 1.6827 is resumption of long term down trend from 1.8234. The pattern of lower highs since 1.6826 gives no indication that such fall has completed yet. On the other hand, the failure to sustain below 1.4391 (01 low) and the lack of impulsive structure of fall from 1.6827 is not confirming the bearish case. Focus will be on the development of the rebound from 1.4315 for further hints.