EUR/CHF's recent decline is still in progress and reaches as low as 1.4807 so far. With 61.8% projection of 1.5138 to 1.4894 from 1.4988 at 1.4837 taken out, current fall is now targeting 100% projection at 1.4744 next. On the upside, above 1.4875 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations. But after all, break of 1.4988 resistance is needed to be the first signal that EUR/CHF has bottomed out. Otherwise, short term outlook will remain bearish and another fall is still expected after consolidations.
In the bigger picture, with EUR/CHF still staying well below 55 weeks EMA, fall from 1.5880 is likely still in progress. Current decline should have a test on 1.4577 support first and break will target 2008 low of 1.4315. On the upside, break of 1.5138 resistance is needed to indicate that fall from 1.5446 has finished and revive the case that 1.4577 is still in progress. Otherwise, medium term outlook will remain bearish.
In the long term picture, the corrective three wave structure of the rise from 1.4391 to 1.6827 is arguing that fall from 1.6827 is resumption of long term down trend from 1.8234. EUR/CHF's failure to take out 55 weeks EMA suggests that whole fall from 1.6827 is still in progress. A break of 1.4577 support will affirm this case and bring another low below 1.4315 to resume the long term down trend.
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