EUR/CHF Weekly Outlook

By IBTimes Staff Reporter | January 23 2010 6:59 PM

EUR/CHF dropped further to as low as 1.4673 last week but continued to lose downside momentum and recovered. Touching of 1.4740 minor resistance turns intraday bias neutral and some consolidations could be seen in initially this week. Nevertheless, another fall is still expected as long as 1.4808 resistance holds. Below 1.4673 will target next key support level at 1.4577. However, note that break of 1.4808 will indicate that a short term bottom is formed with bullish convergence condition in 4 hours MACD. In such case, stronger rebound would be seen to 1.4894/4988 resistance zone.

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In the bigger picture, with EUR/CHF still staying well below 55 weeks EMA, fall from 1.5880 is likely still in progress. Current decline should have a test on 1.4577 support first and break will target 2008 low of 1.4315. On the upside, break of 1.5007 support turned resistance is needed be the first signal to indicate that fall from 1.5446 has finished. Otherwise, medium term outlook will remain bearish.

In the long term picture, the corrective three wave structure of the rise from 1.4391 to 1.6827 is arguing that fall from 1.6827 is resumption of long term down trend from 1.8234. EUR/CHF's failure to take out 55 weeks EMA suggests that whole fall from 1.6827 is still in progress. A break of 1.4577 support will affirm this case and bring another low below 1.4315 to resume the long term down trend.

EUR/CHF