EUR/CHF dropped sharply to as low as 1.4109 last week. While such fall was much deeper than expected, there is no change in the view that price action from 1.4587 should be corrective in nature. Also, considering risk of another round of SNB intervention, we'd expect strong support above 1.4 psychological level to bring rebound even in case of another fall. On the upside, above 1.4312 minor resistance will suggest that such pull back is completed and flip intraday bias back to the upside for another recovery.

In the bigger picture, a medium term bottom should be in place above 1.4 psychological level and the cross has now entered into another consolidation phase. However, note that the current rebound is not strong enough to warrant a reversal of the long term down trend yet. We'd expect strong resistance at 55 weeks EMA (now at 1.48 level) to limit upside. The cross should revisit 1.4 level again some time in medium term.

In the long term picture, fall from 1.6827 should be resuming whole down trend from 1993 high of 1.8234. We'd expect such down trend to extend towards 100% projection of 1.8234 to 1.4391 from 1.6827 at 1.2984 in the longer run. Break of 1.5138 is needed to confirm reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

EUR/CHF

EUR/CHF

EUR/CHF

EUR/CHF