EUR/CHF powered through 1.4 psychological level last week and reached as low as 1.3865, meeting 61.8% projection of 1.5138 to 1.4002 from 1.4587 at 1.3885. Initial bias remains on the downside this week and sustained trading below 1.3885 will set the stage for further fall to 100% projection at 1.3451 next. On the upside, above 1.3988 will indicate that a temporary low is formed and bring consolidations. But strong resistance should be seen between 1.4109/4307 to limit upside and bring fall resumption.
In the bigger picture, the strong break of 1.4 psychological level confirmed long term down trend resumption. Such down trend is still in healthy state with EUR/CHF staying well below a falling 55 weeks EMA. Next target will be 100% projection of 1.8234 to 1.4391 from 1.6827 at 1.2984, which is close to 1.3 psychological level. On the upside, break of 1.4587 resistance is needed to confirm medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.
In the long term picture, fall from 1.6827 should be resuming whole down trend from 1993 high of 1.8234. We'd expect such down trend to extend towards 100% projection of 1.8234 to 1.4391 from 1.6827 at 1.2984 in the longer run.