EUR/CHF reversed after climbing to 1.4039 and subsequent sharp fall and break of 1.3733 low confirmed medium term down trend resumption. Initial bias remains on the downside this week and EUR/CHF should now target 100% projection of 1.5138 to 1.4002 from 1.4587 at 1.3451 next. On the upside above 1.3785 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring recovery. But upside should be limited well below 1.4039 resistance and bring fall resumption.
In the bigger picture, EUR/CHF's down trend from 2007 high of 1.6827 is still in healthy state as it's trading well below 55 weeks EMA. Next target will be 100% projection of 1.8234 to 1.4391 from 1.6827 at 1.2984, which is close to 1.3 psychological level. On the upside, break of 1.4587 resistance is needed to signal medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.
In the long term picture, fall from 1.6827 should be resuming whole down trend from 1993 high of 1.8234. We'd expect such down trend to extend towards 100% projection of 1.8234 to 1.4391 from 1.6827 at 1.2984 in the longer run.